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Rebalancing in the Euro Area and Cyclicality of Current Account Adjustments

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  • Thierry Tressel
  • Shengzu Wang

Abstract

The paper examines progress with the external rebalancing of euro area deficit countries. Relative prices are adjusting at different pace across countries and with different compositions of wage cuts and labor shedding. There is so far limited evidence of resource re-allocation from non-tradable to tradable sectors, while improved export performance is still dependent on external demand from the rest of world. Current account adjustments have taken place, reflecting structural changes but also cyclical forces, suggesting that part of the improvements may unwind when cyclical conditions improve. Looking ahead, relying only on relative price adjustments (which adversely affects demand) to rebalance the euro area could prove very challenging. Structural reforms will play an important role in the reallocation of resources to the tradable sector and the associated relative price adjustment, while boosting non-price and price competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Thierry Tressel & Shengzu Wang, 2014. "Rebalancing in the Euro Area and Cyclicality of Current Account Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 14/130, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/130
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2016. "Investment, asset market, and the relative unit labor cost in Mexico," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 339-364, November.
    2. Lukas Vogel, 2017. "Stabilization and Rebalancing with Fiscal or Monetary Devaluation: a Model-Based Comparison," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(2), pages 235-253.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2017. "Optimal adjustment paths in a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 338-345.
    4. Tkačevs, Olegs & Christodoulopoulou, Styliani & Bobeica, Elena, 2016. "The role of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1941, European Central Bank.
    5. Galip Kemal Ozhan, 2015. "Financial Intermediation, Resource Allocation, and Macroeconomic Interdependence," 2015 Papers poz71, Job Market Papers.
    6. Karsten Staehr & Robert Vermeulen, 2016. "How competitiveness shocks affect macroeconomic performance across euro area countries," DNB Working Papers 515, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Serranito, Francisco, 2015. "Dévaluation interne, politiques structurelles et réductions des déficits publics : les réponses apportées par la « troïka » sont-elles un remède aux déséquilibres externes des pays périphériques de la," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 18.
    8. Ana Fontoura Gouveia & Filipa Canas, 2016. "Reallocation of Resources between Tradable and Non-Tradable Sectors in Portugal: Developing a new Identification Strategy for the Tradable Sector," GEE Papers 0060, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Feb 2016.
    9. Pierluigi, Beatrice & Sondermann, David, 2018. "Macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area: where do we stand?," Occasional Paper Series 211, European Central Bank.
    10. Enno Schröder, 2015. "Eurozone Imbalances: Measuring the Contribution of Expenditure Switching and Expenditure Volumes 1990-2013," Working Papers 1508, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2015.
    11. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2016. "Negative Rates and Seigniorage: Turning the central bank business model upside down? The special case of the ECB," CEPS Papers 11753, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    12. Hohberger, Stefan & Kraus, Lena, 2016. "Is fiscal devaluation welfare enhancing?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 512-522.
    13. repec:beo:journl:v:63:y:2018:i:217:p:75-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Enrique Moral-Benito & Francesca Viani, 2017. "An anatomy of the spanish current account adjustment: the role of permanent and transitory factors," Working Papers 1737, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

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    Keywords

    Current account; Rebalancing; Imbalances; Euro Area; export performance; export growth; reer; debtor countries; General; Country and Industry Studies of Trade; Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems; Euro Area.;

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