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Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment

  • Atish R. Ghosh
  • Jonathan David Ostry
  • Mahvash Saeed Qureshi

This paper revisits the bipolar prescription for exchange rate regime choice and asks two questions: are the poles of hard pegs and pure floats still safer than the middle? And where to draw the line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes? Our findings, based on a sample of 50 EMEs over 1980-2011, show that macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities are significantly greater under less flexible intermediate regimes—including hard pegs—as compared to floats. While not especially susceptible to banking or currency crises, hard pegs are significantly more prone to growth collapses, suggesting that the security of the hard end of the prescription is largely illusory. Intermediate regimes as a class are the most susceptible to crises, but “managed floatsâ€â€”a subclass within such regimes—behave much more like pure floats, with significantly lower risks and fewer crises. “Managed floating,†however, is a nebulous concept; a characterization of more crisis prone regimes suggests no simple dividing line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 14/11.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: 24 Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/11
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  1. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February.
  2. Sabine Herrmann, 2009. "Do We Really Know That Flexible Exchange Rates Facilitate Current Account Adjustment? Some New Empirical Evidence for CEE Countries," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 55(4), pages 295-312.
  3. Christoph B. Rosenberg & Marcel Tirpák, 2008. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Borrowing in the New Member States of the EU," IMF Working Papers 08/173, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline," Working Papers 95-06, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  6. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  7. Jeffrey J. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-062, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Esteban R. Vesperoni, 2011. "Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 17670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Aasim M. Husain, 2004. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Occasional Papers 229, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "A Faith-Based Initiative Meets the Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 168-184, March.
  11. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Ghosh, Atish R. & Chamon, Marcos & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2012. "Tools for managing financial-stability risks from capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 407-421.
  12. Apanard P. Angkinand & Thomas D. Willett, 2011. "Exchange rate regimes and banking crises: the channels of influence investigated," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 256-274, 07.
  13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262013657, June.
  15. Ghosh, Atish R. & Qureshi, Mahvash S. & Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2013. "Is the exchange rate regime really irrelevant for external adjustment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 104-109.
  16. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Andrew K. Rose, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era : Fixed, Floating, and Flaky," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 652-72, September.
  18. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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