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Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment

  • Atish R. Ghosh
  • Jonathan David Ostry
  • Mahvash Saeed Qureshi

This paper revisits the bipolar prescription for exchange rate regime choice and asks two questions: are the poles of hard pegs and pure floats still safer than the middle? And where to draw the line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes? Our findings, based on a sample of 50 EMEs over 1980-2011, show that macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities are significantly greater under less flexible intermediate regimes—including hard pegs—as compared to floats. While not especially susceptible to banking or currency crises, hard pegs are significantly more prone to growth collapses, suggesting that the security of the hard end of the prescription is largely illusory. Intermediate regimes as a class are the most susceptible to crises, but “managed floatsâ€â€”a subclass within such regimes—behave much more like pure floats, with significantly lower risks and fewer crises. “Managed floating,†however, is a nebulous concept; a characterization of more crisis prone regimes suggests no simple dividing line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 14/11.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: 24 Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/11
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  1. Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Apanard P. Angkinand & Thomas D. Willett, 2011. "Exchange rate regimes and banking crises: the channels of influence investigated," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 256-274, 07.
  5. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Esteban R. Vesperoni, 2011. "Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 17670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline," Working Papers 95-06, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  7. Ghosh, Atish R. & Qureshi, Mahvash S. & Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2013. "Is the exchange rate regime really irrelevant for external adjustment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 104-109.
  8. Herrmann, Sabine, 2009. "Do we really know that flexible exchange rates facilitate current account adjustment? Some new empirical evidence for CEE countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,22, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  9. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February.
  10. Rose, Andrew K, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era: Fixed, Floating, and Flaky," CEPR Discussion Papers 7987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "A Faith-Based Initiative Meets the Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 168-184, March.
  12. Jeffrey J. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-062, University of California at Berkeley.
  13. Christoph B. Rosenberg & Marcel Tirpák, 2008. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Borrowing in the New Member States of the EU," IMF Working Papers 08/173, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  15. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262013657, June.
  16. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Ghosh, Atish R. & Chamon, Marcos & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2012. "Tools for managing financial-stability risks from capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 407-421.
  18. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
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