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GPM6; The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Ioan Carabenciov
  • Charles Freedman
  • Roberto Garcia-Saltos
  • Douglas Laxton
  • Ondra Kamenik
  • Petar Manchev

Abstract

This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add three more regions and make a number of other changes to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Laxton & Ondra Kamenik & Petar Manchev, 2013. "GPM6; The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions," IMF Working Papers 13/87, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/87
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Laidler, 2003. "The price level, relative prices and economic stability: aspects of the interwar debate," BIS Working Papers 136, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Laxton & Michal Andrle & Haris Munandar & Charles Freedman & Danny Hermawan, 2009. "Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 09/253, International Monetary Fund.
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    6. Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters; Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 08/169, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Clinton, Kevin & Garcia-Saltos, Roberto & Johnson, Marianne & Kamenik, Ondrej & Laxton, Douglas, 2010. "International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 140-177, June.
    8. Freedman, Charles & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Muir, Dirk & Mursula, Susanna, 2010. "Global effects of fiscal stimulus during the crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 506-526, July.
    9. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis; A How-To Guide," IMF Working Papers 06/81, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    11. Michel Juillard & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Douglas Laxton & Ondrej Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Jared Laxton, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/280, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Robert Koopman & William Powers & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "Give Credit Where Credit Is Due: Tracing Value Added in Global Production Chains," NBER Working Papers 16426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 09/85, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Eyal Argov & David Rose & Philippe D Karam & Natan P. Epstein & Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel," IMF Working Papers 07/207, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lafourcade, Pierre & Gerali, Andrea & Brůha, Jan & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & Corbo, Vesna & Haavio, Markus & Håkanson, Christina & Hlédik, Tibor & Kátay, Gábor & Kulikov, Dmitry & Lozej, Matija , 2016. "Labour market modelling in the light of the financial crisis," Occasional Paper Series 175, European Central Bank.
    2. José R. Maria, 2016. "Portugal: Trends, cycles, and instability in output and unemployment over 2008-2012," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Fernando José Pérez Forero, 2015. "Comparing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks in Latin America: A Hierachical Panel VAR," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2015eng, December.
    4. Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Michel Juillard & Ondrej Kamenik & Douglas Laxton & Hou Wang, 2015. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting; Applying the Principle of Transparency," IMF Working Papers 15/132, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in spillover estimates from bilateral and multilateral multi-country models," Working Paper Series 1868, European Central Bank.
    6. Barrdear, John & Kumhof, Michael, 2016. "The macroeconomics of central bank issued digital currencies," Bank of England working papers 605, Bank of England.
    7. Javier G. Gómez-Pineda, 2016. "Commodity Price Fluctuations, Core Inflation and Policy Interest Rates," Borradores de Economia 967, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Singapore; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 16/264, International Monetary Fund.
    9. José R. Maria, 2016. "Output and unemployment, Portugal, 2008–2012," Working Papers w201603, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Choi, Woon Gyu & Kang, Taesu & Kim, Geun-Young & Lee, Byongju, 2017. "Global liquidity transmission to emerging market economies, and their policy responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 153-166.
    11. Georgios Georgiadis, 2016. "To bi, or not to bi? Differences in Spillover Estimates from Bilateral and Multilateral Multi-country Models," EcoMod2016 9145, EcoMod.
    12. Benes, Jaromir & Kumhof, Michael, 2015. "Risky bank lending and countercyclical capital buffers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Singapore; 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore," IMF Staff Country Reports 16/263, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Javier G. Gómez-Pineda & Dominique Guillaume & Kadir Tanyeri, 2015. "Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 013327, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    15. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
    16. Ruperto MAJUCA, 2013. "Managing Economic Shocks and Macroeconomic Coordination in an Integrated Region: ASEAN Beyond 2015," Working Papers DP-2013-18, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    17. Michal Andrle & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Giang Ho, 2014. "A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers; The Case of Poland and the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 14/186, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Rakesh Mohan & Muneesh Kapur, 2014. "Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks," IMF Working Papers 14/70, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Patrick Blagrave & Peter Elliott & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Hostland & Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2013. "Adding China to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 13/256, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Zoltan Jakab & Pavel Lukyantsau & Shengzu Wang, 2015. "A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies," IMF Working Papers 15/50, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Javier Gómez‐Pineda & Dominique M. Guillaume & Kadir Tanyeri, 2015. "Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 15/165, International Monetary Fund.

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