China’s Path to Consumer-Based Growth; Reorienting Investment and Enhancing Efficiency
This paper proposes a possible framework for identifying excessive investment. Based on this method, it finds evidence that some types of investment are becoming excessive in China, particularly in inland provinces. In these regions, private consumption has on average become more dependent on investment (rather than vice versa) and the impact is relatively short-lived, necessitating ever higher levels of investment to maintain economic activity. By contrast, private consumption has become more self-sustaining in coastal provinces, in large part because investment here tends to benefit household incomes more than corporates. If existing trends continue, valuable resources could be wasted at a time when China’s ability to finance investment is facing increasing constraints due to dwindling land, labor, and government resources and becoming more reliant on liquidity expansion, with attendant risks of financial instability and asset bubbles. Thus, investment should not be indiscriminately directed toward urbanization or industrialization of Western regions but shifted toward sectors with greater and more lasting spillovers to household income and consumption. In this context, investment in agriculture and services is found to be superior to that in manufacturing and real estate. Financial reform would facilitate such a reorientation, helping China to enhance capital efficiency and keep growth buoyant even as aggregate investment is lowered to sustainable levels.
|Date of creation:||29 Mar 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Quising, Pilipinas & He, Xin-Hua, 2006.
"How much does investment drive economic growth in China?,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 751-774, October.
- Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Pilipinas Quising & Xin-Hua He, 2005. "How Much Does Investment Drive Economic Growth in China?," Working Papers 545, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- He, Dong & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "How dependent is the Chinese economy on exports and in what sense has its growth been export-led?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-104, February.
- Dong He & Wenlang Zhang, 2008. "How Dependent is the Chinese Economy on Exports and in What Sense has its Growth been Export-led?," Working Papers 0814, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
- Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
- Christophe Hurlin & Elena Dumitrescu, 2012. "Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels," Working Papers halshs-00224434, HAL.
- Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels," Post-Print hal-01385899, HAL.
- Qin, Duo & Song, Haiyan, 2009. "Sources of investment inefficiency: The case of fixed-asset investment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 94-105, September.
- Duo Qin & Haiyan Song, 2007. "Sources of Investment Inefficiency: The Case of Fixed-Asset Investment in China," Working Papers 584, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.