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Current Account Norms in Natural Resource Rich and Capital Scarce Economies

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  • Juliana Dutra Araujo
  • Grace B Li
  • Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
  • Luis-Felipe Zanna

Abstract

The permanent income hypothesis implies that frictionless open economies with exhaustible natural resources should save abroad most of their resource windfalls and, therefore, feature current account surpluses. Resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs), on the other hand, face substantial development needs and tight external borrowing constraints. By relaxing these constraints and providing a key financing source for public investment in RRDCs, temporary resource revenues might then be associated with current account deficits, or at least low surpluses. This paper develops a neoclassical model with private and public investment and several frictions that capture pervasive features in RRDCs, including absorptive capacity constraints, inefficiencies in investment, and borrowing constraints that can be relaxed when natural resources lower the country risk premium. The model is used to study the role of investment and these frictions in shaping the current account dynamics under windfalls. Since consumption and investment decisions are optimal, the model also serves to provide current account benchmarks (norms). We apply the model to the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa and discuss how our results can be used to inform the current account norm analysis pursued at the International Monetary Fund.

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  • Juliana Dutra Araujo & Grace B Li & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2013. "Current Account Norms in Natural Resource Rich and Capital Scarce Economies," IMF Working Papers 13/80, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/80
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    Cited by:

    1. Christine J. Richmond & Irene Yackovlev & Susan S. Yang, 2013. "Investing Volatile Oil Revenues in Capital-Scarce Economies; An Application to Angola," IMF Working Papers 13/147, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Li, Bin Grace & Gupta, Pranav & Yu, Jiangyan, 2017. "From natural resource boom to sustainable economic growth: Lessons from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 7-25.
    3. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2016. "Optimal fiscal management of commodity price shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 183-196.
    4. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Dramane & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: The role of financial development," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 185-201.
    5. Melina, Giovanni & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Debt sustainability, public investment, and natural resources in developing countries: The DIGNAR model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 630-649.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Islamic Republic of Mauritania; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 15/36, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Andrew Berg & Edward F. Buffie & Catherine Pattillo & Rafael Portillo & Andrea Filippo Presbitero & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2015. "Some Misconceptions about Public Investment Efficiency and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 116, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    8. Emmanuel Olusegun STOBER, 2016. "Crude Oil Price Shocks And Macroeconomic Behavior In Nigeria," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 56-66, JULY.
    9. repec:bla:worlde:v:41:y:2018:i:3:p:926-957 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Malova, Aleksandra & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 27-40.
    11. Xin Xu & Ahmed El-Ashram & Judith Gold, 2015. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Prudent Management of Inflows under Economic Citizenship Programs," IMF Working Papers 15/93, International Monetary Fund.
    12. repec:eee:jmacro:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:332-352 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Grace Li, 2018. "Investing in Public Infrastructure: Roads or Schools?," 2018 Meeting Papers 338, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Chad; 2016 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad," IMF Staff Country Reports 16/274, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Liu, Kai & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2015. "Short- and Long-Run Fiscal Elasticities: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 65950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Steven T Phillips & Luis Catão & Luca A Ricci & Rudolfs Bems & Mitali Das & Julian Di Giovanni & Filiz D Unsal & Marola Castillo & Jungjin Lee & Jair Rodriguez & Mauricio Vargas, 2013. "The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology," IMF Working Papers 13/272, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Alberto Behar & Armand Fouejieu, 2018. "External adjustment in oil exporters: The role of fiscal policy and the exchange rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 926-957, March.

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