Aid, Exports, and Growth; A Time-Series Perspective on the Dutch Disease Hypothesis
We use a heterogeneous panel VAR model identified through factor analysis to study the dynamic response of exports, imports, and per capita GDP growth to a “global” aid shock. We find that a global aid shock can affect exports, imports, and growth either positively or negatively. As a result, the relation between aid and growth is mixed, consistent with the ambiguous results in the existing literature. For most countries in the sample, when aid reduces exports and imports, it also reduces growth; and, when aid increases exports and imports, it also increases growth. This evidence is consistent with a DD hypothesis, but also shows that aid-receiving countries are not “doomed” to catch DD.
|Date of creation:||20 Mar 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008.
"Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
- Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth; What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," IMF Working Papers 05/127, International Monetary Fund.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," NBER Working Papers 11513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does The Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," Working Papers id:54, eSocialSciences.
- Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 1998. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach—A Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(1), pages 319-323.
- Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2011.
"Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 106-118, January.
- Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2000.
"Aid and Growth Regressions,"
62288, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Charles I. Jones, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525.
- Thierry Tressel & Alessandro Prati, 2006. "Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease; Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 06/145, International Monetary Fund.
- Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2001.
"On the Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth,"
EPRU Working Paper Series
03-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Sep 2003.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.