IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap

  • Shekhar Aiyar
  • Romain A Duval
  • Damien Puy
  • Yiqun Wu
  • Longmei Zhang

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40411
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 13/71.

as
in new window

Length: 64
Date of creation: 20 Mar 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/71
Contact details of provider: Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
  2. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2011. "When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," NBER Working Papers 16919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Easterly, W & Levine, R, 1996. "Africa's Growth Tragedy : Policies and Ethnic Divisions," Papers 536, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  4. Fratzscher, Marcel & Bussière, Matthieu, 2004. "Financial openness and growth: short-run gain, long-run pain?," Working Paper Series 0348, European Central Bank.
  5. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2011. "Model averaging in economics," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1123, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Aiyar, Shekhar, 2011. "How did the crisis in international funding markets affect bank lending? Balance sheet evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 424, Bank of England.
  7. William A Masters and Margaret S McMillan, 2000. "Climate and Scale in Economic Growth," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Robert M. Schmidt & Allen C. Kelley, 1996. "Saving, dependency and development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 365-386.
  9. Hervé Boulhol & Alain de Serres, 2008. "Have Developed Countries Escaped the Curse of Distance?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 610, OECD Publishing.
  10. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  11. Michael Bruno & William Easterly, 1995. "Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 5209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Röller, Lars-Hendrik & Waverman, Leonard, 2000. "Telecommunications Infrastructure And Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 2399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Ashoka Mody & Shekhar Aiyar, 2011. "The Demographic Dividend; Evidence From the Indian States," IMF Working Papers 11/38, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Douglas Gollin, 2001. "Getting Income Shares Right," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-11, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  15. Giuseppe De Luca & Jan R. Magnus, 2011. "Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(4), pages 518-544, December.
  16. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei, 1993. "Princes and Merchants: European City Growth before the Industrial Revolution," Scholarly Articles 3451302, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  18. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2011. "Dynamic panels with predetermined regressors: likelihood-based estimation and Bayesian averaging with an application to cross-country growth," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1109, Banco de Espa�a.
  19. Duval, Romain & de la Maisonneuve, Christine, 2010. "Long-run growth scenarios for the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 64-80, January.
  20. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2010. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
  23. Ben-David, Dan, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-79, August.
  24. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
  25. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
  26. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," NBER Working Papers 15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Shekhar Aiyar & Carl-Johan Dalgaard, 2004. "Total Factor Productivity Revisited: A Dual Approach to Development Accounting," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-07, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  28. Balázs Égert & Tomasz Koźluk & Douglas Sutherland, 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth: Empirical Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 685, OECD Publishing.
  29. Anna Jankowska & Arne Nagengast & José Ramón Perea, 2012. "The Product Space and the Middle-Income Trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American Experiences," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 311, OECD Publishing.
  30. Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  31. Nicola Spatafora & Rahul Anand & Saurabh Mishra, 2012. "Structural Transformation and the sophistication of Production," IMF Working Papers 12/59, International Monetary Fund.
  32. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  33. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  34. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2009. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4830, The World Bank.
  35. Danilov, Dmitry & Magnus, J.R.Jan R., 2004. "On the harm that ignoring pretesting can cause," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 27-46, September.
  36. Shekhar Aiyar, 2012. "From Financial Crisis to Great Recession: The Role of Globalized Banks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 225-30, May.
  37. Mauro, Paolo, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712, August.
  38. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
  39. Demetriades, Panicos O & Mamuneas, Theofanis P, 2000. "Intertemporal Output and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure Capital: Evidence from 12 OECD Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 687-712, July.
  40. Francesco Caselli & Gerardo Esquivel & Fernando Lefort, 1997. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 03, Central Bank of Chile.
  41. Shekhar Aiyar & Carl-Johan Dalgaard, 2008. "Accounting for Productivity: Is it OK to Assume that the World is Cobb-Douglas?," Discussion Papers 08-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  42. Kelley, Allen C & Schmidt, Robert M, 1996. "Saving, Dependency and Development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 365-86, November.
  43. Alin Mirestean & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Huigang Chen, 2009. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods," IMF Working Papers 09/74, International Monetary Fund.
  44. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap," NBER Working Papers 18673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/71. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)

or (Hassan Zaidi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.