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The Economics of Political Transitions; Implications for the Arab Spring

Author

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  • Padamja Khandelwal
  • Agustin Roitman

Abstract

Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.

Suggested Citation

  • Padamja Khandelwal & Agustin Roitman, 2013. "The Economics of Political Transitions; Implications for the Arab Spring," IMF Working Papers 13/69, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/69
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2006. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1379-1389, August.
    2. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
    3. Freund, Caroline & Jaud, Mélise, 2013. "Regime Change, Democracy and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 9282, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Paul J. Burke & Andrew Leigh, 2010. "Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 124-157, October.
    5. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    6. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 4553018, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Tobias N. Rasmussen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 04/224, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marek Dabrowski, 2014. "Macroeconomic and fiscal challenges faced by the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0471, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    2. Tammuz Alraheb & Amine Tarazi, 2016. "Local Versus International Crises, Foreign Subsidiaries and Bank Stability: Evidence from the MENA Region," Working Papers 1045, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2016.
    3. Driouchi, Ahmed & Harkat, Tahar, 2017. "Granger Causality and the Factors underlying the Role of Younger Generations in Economic, Social and Political Changes in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 77218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ghosh, Saibal, 2016. "Political transition and bank performance: How important was the Arab Spring?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 372-382.
    5. repec:eee:ecanpo:v:55:y:2017:i:c:p:106-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:finsta:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:18-44 is not listed on IDEAS

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