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A Framework for Macroprudential Bank Solvency Stress Testing; Application to S-25 and Other G-20 Country FSAPs

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas A. Jobst
  • Li L Ong
  • Christian Schmieder

Abstract

The global financial crisis has placed the spotlight squarely on bank stress tests. Stress tests conducted in the lead-up to the crisis, including those by IMF staff, were not always able to identify the right risks and vulnerabilities. Since then, IMF staff has developed more robust stress testing methods and models and adopted a more coherent and consistent approach. This paper articulates the solvency stress testing framework that is being applied in the IMF’s surveillance of member countries’ banking systems, and discusses examples of its actual implementation in FSAPs to 18 countries which are in the group comprising the 25 most systemically important financial systems (“S-25”) plus other G-20 countries. In doing so, the paper also offers useful guidance for readers seeking to develop their own stress testing frameworks and country authorities preparing for FSAPs. A detailed Stress Test Matrix (STeM) comparing the stress test parameters applie in each of these major country FSAPs is provided, together with our stress test output templates.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas A. Jobst & Li L Ong & Christian Schmieder, 2013. "A Framework for Macroprudential Bank Solvency Stress Testing; Application to S-25 and Other G-20 Country FSAPs," IMF Working Papers 13/68, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/68
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40390
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Juan Solé, 2011. "Cross-border financial surveillance: a network perspective," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 182-205, August.
    2. Rodrigo Alfaro & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Macro stress tests and crises: what can we learn?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    3. Eugenio M Cerutti & Christian Schmieder, 2012. "The Need for "Un-consolidating" Consolidated Banks' Stress Tests," IMF Working Papers 12/288, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 2014. "Stress-testing macro stress testing: Does it live up to expectations?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 3-15.
    5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Vitek, Francis, 2011. "Spillovers from the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis: A Macroeconometric Model Based Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Andreas A. Jobst & Dale F. Gray, 2013. "Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis; Estimating Market-Implied Systemic Risk," IMF Working Papers 13/54, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. George Papadopoulos & Savas Papadopoulos & Thomas Sager, 2016. "Credit risk stress testing for EU15 banks: a model combination approach," Working Papers 203, Bank of Greece.
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 2016. "Experiences with the ex ante appraisal of macroprudential instruments," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 56.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "People’s Republic of China–Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; Financial Sector Assessment Program-Stress Testing the Banking Sector-Technical Note," IMF Staff Country Reports 14/210, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Li Lian Ong & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 2014. "Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 1-67, February.
    5. Busch, Ramona & Koziol, Philipp & Mitrovic, Marc, 2015. "Many a little makes a mickle: Macro portfolio stress test for small and medium-sized German banks," Discussion Papers 23/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Juan-Francisco Martínez & Rodrigo Cifuentes & Juan Sebastián Becerra, 2017. "Pruebas de Tensión Bancaria del Banco Central de Chile: Actualización," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 801, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Pablo García & Bárbara Ulloa, 2017. "Financial Surveillance and Communication: Recent and Future Challenges from the Chilean Experience," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 61, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Ventsislav Hristev, 2014. "Bank Stress-Testing Lessons from Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 92-109, December.
    9. Eugenio M Cerutti & Christian Schmieder, 2012. "The Need for "Un-consolidating" Consolidated Banks' Stress Tests," IMF Working Papers 12/288, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Daniel C Hardy & Christian Schmieder, 2013. "Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 13/232, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Heiko Hesse & Ferhan Salman & Christian Schmieder, 2014. "How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?," IMF Working Papers 14/103, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Li L Ong & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 2013. "Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 13/178, International Monetary Fund.

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