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The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation

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  • Luc Eyraud
  • Anke Weber

Abstract

Studies suggest that fiscal multipliers are currently high in many advanced economies. One important implication is that fiscal tightening could raise the debt ratio in the short term, as fiscal gains are partly wiped out by the decline in output. Although this effect is not long-lasting and debt eventually declines, it could be an issue if financial markets focus on the short-term behavior of the debt ratio, or if country authorities engage in repeated rounds of tightening in an effort to get the debt ratio to converge to the official target. We discuss whether these problems could be addressed by setting and monitoring debt targets in cyclically-adjusted terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc Eyraud & Anke Weber, 2013. "The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 13/67, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/67
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    Cited by:

    1. Guzman Martin & Heymann Daniel, 2015. "The IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis: Issues and Problems," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 387-404, December.
    2. Jorg Bibow, 2015. "Making the Euro Viable: The Euro Treasury Plan," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_842, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2013. "Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Brazil," MPRA Paper 72534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jesper Jespersen, 2013. "The Euro: Why it Went Wrong and How to Get On?," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(68), pages 23-42, June.
    5. Manos Matsaganis & Chrysa Leventi, 2014. "Distributive Effects of the Crisis and Austerity in Seven EU Countries," ImPRovE Working Papers 14/04, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    6. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiová, 2015. "Public Debt Sustainability in Africa: Building Resilience and Challenges Ahead," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 33(5), pages 555-580, September.
    7. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2012. "Reassessing the fiscal mix for successful debt reduction," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(71), pages 365-406, July.
    8. Monokroussos, Platon, 2014. "The challenge of restoring debt sustainability in a deep economic recession: the case of Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59668, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
    10. Vukšić, Goran & Holzner, Mario, 2016. "Trade and fiscal imbalances in Southeastern Europe: Can fiscal devaluation help?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 568-581.
    11. Jesús Ferreiro & Carmen Gómez & Felipe Serrano, 2013. "Mistakes in the Fiscal Policy in Spain before the Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(5), pages 577-592, September.
    12. Mislav Brkic, 2016. "Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis: Causes, Fiscal Adjustment Programs and Lessons for Croatia," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 71-99, June.
    13. Platon Monokroussos, 2014. "The Challenge of Restoring Debt Sustainability in a Deep Economic Recession: The case of Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 87, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    14. Willett, Thomas D. & Srisorn, Nancy, 2014. "The political economy of the Euro crisis: Cognitive biases, faulty mental models, and time inconsistency," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 39-54.
    15. repec:ksa:szemle:1709 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2013. "Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies," IMF Working Papers 13/238, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Castro, Gabriela & Félix, Ricardo M. & Júlio, Paulo & Maria, José R., 2015. "Unpleasant debt dynamics: Can fiscal consolidations raise debt ratios?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 276-294.
    18. Zixi Liu, 2015. "Do debt and growth dance together? A DSGE model of a small open economy with sovereign debt," Working Papers 2015.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    19. repec:eip:journl:y:2016:i:4:p:7-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Benjamin Egron, 2018. "Réduction du ratio de dette publique : quels instruments pour quels effets ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-1, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    21. Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2013. "Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Brazil," MPRA Paper 85432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiova, 2015. "Working Paper 227 - Public Debt Sustainability in Africa: Building Resilience and Challenges Ahead," Working Paper Series 2170, African Development Bank.
    23. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2013. "Fiscal consolidation: Dr Pangloss meets Mr Keynes," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 159, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).

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    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidation; Public debt; fiscal multipliers; fiscal policy; fiscal tightening; Quantitative Policy Modeling; General;

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