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The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy

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  • Stephanie Denis
  • Prakash Kannan

Abstract

This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, depressing industrial production and GDP. The peak impact is felt fairly quickly at around 6-12 months after the shock, and becomes statistically negligible after 18 months. Interestingly, the impact of uncertainty shocks on industrial production in the UK is strikingly similar to that of the US both in terms of the shape and magnitude of the response. However, unemployment in the UK is less affected by uncertainty shocks. Finally, we find that uncertainty shocks can account for about a quarter of the decline in industrial production during the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie Denis & Prakash Kannan, 2013. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy," IMF Working Papers 13/66, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/66
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    Cited by:

    1. Vivek Ghosal & Yang Ye, 2015. "Uncertainty and the employment dynamics of small and large businesses," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 529-558, March.
    2. Haddow, Abigail & Hare, Chris & Hooley, John & Shakir, Tamarah, 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty: what is it, how can we measure it and why does it matter?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(2), pages 100-109.
    3. Bonciani, Dario & Roye, Björn van, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 200-219.
    4. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Panagiotis E. Petrakis & Dionysis G. Valsamis & Pantelis C. Kostis, 2014. "Uncertainty Shocks in Eurozone Periphery Countries and Germany," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 8(2), pages 87-106, December.
    6. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from an uncertainty composite indicator ," Post-Print hal-01549625, HAL.
    7. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from an uncertainty composite indicator ," Post-Print hal-01549625, HAL.

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    Keywords

    United Kingdom; Uncertainty; industrial production; unemployment; recession; unemployment rate; General; GBR;

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