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Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria; Low But Still Relevant

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  • Dirk V Muir
  • Anke Weber

Abstract

With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and model-based approaches. While fiscal multipliers have been modest in the past, as can be expected in a small open emerging economy, the effect on output is not independent of the speed of adjustment and the specific consolidation measures used. The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is larger in downturns than in expansions and capital spending and direct taxes are associated with the largest effects on output, while non-targeted government transfers and indirect taxes are associated with a smaller impact. The results suggest that increased capital spending financed by higher indirect tax revenue collections through base broadening has sizeable growth effects over the medium and long-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk V Muir & Anke Weber, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria; Low But Still Relevant," IMF Working Papers 13/49, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/49
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vladimir Klyuev & Stephen Snudden, 2011. "Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 306-326, August.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Giovanni Callegari & Giovanni Melina & Nicoletta Batini, 2012. "Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan," IMF Working Papers 12/190, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Anja Baum & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/286, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Milan Deskar Škrbić & Hrvoje Šimović, 2015. "The size and determinants of fiscal multipliers in Western Balkans: comparing Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia," EFZG Working Papers Series 1510, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    2. Bogdan Andrei DUMITRESCU, 2015. "The Fiscal Consolidation Consequences On Economic Growth In Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 136-151, September.
    3. repec:taf:pocoec:v:29:y:2017:i:3:p:336-358 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
    5. World Bank, 2015. "Bulgaria Health Financing," World Bank Other Operational Studies 22964, The World Bank.
    6. Patonov Nikolay, 2016. "Fiscal Impacts on Output in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Albania," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, De Gruyter Open, vol. 63(2), pages 161-169, June.

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