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Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt; A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality

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  • Inessa Love
  • Rima Turk-Ariss

Abstract

This paper investigates macro-financial linkages in Egypt using two complementary methods, assessing the interaction between different macroeconomic aggregates and loan portfolio quality in a multivariate framework as well as through a panel vector autoregressive method that controls for bank-level characteristics. Using a panel of banks over 1993-2010, the authors find that a positive shock to capital inflows and growth in gross domestic product improves banks’ loan portfolio quality, and that the effect is fairly similar in magnitude using the multivariate and panel vector autoregressive frameworks. In contrast, higher lending rates may lead to adverse selection problems and hence to a drop in portfolio quality. The paper also reports that a larger market share of foreign banks in the industry improves loan quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Inessa Love & Rima Turk-Ariss, 2013. "Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt; A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality," IMF Working Papers 13/271, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/271
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    Cited by:

    1. Louhichi, Awatef & Boujelbene, Younes, 2016. "Credit risk, managerial behaviour and macroeconomic equilibrium within dual banking systems: Interest-free vs. interest-based banking industries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 104-121.
    2. Ahmet F. Aysan & Mustafa Disli & Huseyin Ozturk, 2017. "Bank Lending Channel In A Dual Banking System:Why Are Islamic Banks So Responsive?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/938, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Tammuz Alraheb & Amine Tarazi, 2016. "Local Versus International Crises, Foreign Subsidiaries and Bank Stability: Evidence from the MENA Region," Working Papers 1045, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2016.
    4. Kabir, Md. Nurul & Worthington, Andrew C., 2017. "The ‘competition–stability/fragility’ nexus: A comparative analysis of Islamic and conventional banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 111-128.
    5. Grossmann, Axel & Love, Inessa & Orlov, Alexei G., 2014. "The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: A panel VAR approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-27.
    6. Janda, Karel & Van Tran, Quang & Zetek, Pavel, 2014. "Influence of External Funding on Microfinance Performance," MPRA Paper 58170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dong, Yizhe & Firth, Michael & Hou, Wenxuan & Yang, Weiwei, 2016. "Evaluating the performance of Chinese commercial banks: A comparative analysis of different types of banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 280-295.
    8. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: An ethical dilemma," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 808-824.
    9. Inessa Love & Roberto Rocha & Erik Feyen & Samuel Munzele Maimbo & Raquel Letelier, 2014. "Who is to Blame: Foreign Ownership or Foreign Funding?," Working Papers 201423, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    10. Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis & Anh N. Vu, 2017. "The interplay between quantitative easing and risk: the case of the Japanese banking," Working Papers 226, Bank of Greece.
    11. Janda, Karel & Tran, Quang & Zetek, Pavel, 2014. "Vliv externího financování na mikrofinanční rozvoj - makro perspektiva
      [Influence of external funding on microfinance performance - macro perspective]
      ," MPRA Paper 58166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2015. "Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Economic Growth: A Moral Dilemma," MPRA Paper 67422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:303-317 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Erik Feyen, 2016. "Financial Crisis Transmission: Foreign Ownership vs. Foreign Funding?," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 63-80, November.
    15. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:645-657 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:eco:journ2:2017-03-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:eee:ememar:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:193-208 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Kimberly Beaton & Alla Myrvoda & Shernnel Thompson, 2016. "Non-Performing Loans in the ECCU; Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact," IMF Working Papers 16/229, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Ismail Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2016. "The Joint Effects of Oil Price Volatility and Environmental Risks on Non-performing Loans: Evidence from Panel Data of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 522-528.
    20. Antonakakis, Nikos & Dragouni, Mina & Eeckels, Bruno & Filis, George, 2015. "Tourism and economic growth revisited: Empirical evidence from a Panel VAR approach," MPRA Paper 67419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Nderitu Kingori, 2016. "Market Structure, Macroeconomic Shocks, and Banking Risk in Kenya," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 1(2), pages 81-113, December.
    22. Ryan-Collins, Josh & Werner, Richard A. & Castle, Jennifer, 2016. "A half-century diversion of monetary policy? An empirical horse-race to identify the UK variable most likely to deliver the desired nominal GDP growth rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 158-176.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; External shocks; Egypt; Credit risk; Banks; Loans; Macroeconomic Shocks; Loan Quality; Panel Vector Autoregression; banking; loan portfolio quality; banking sector; banks ’ loan; banks ’ balance sheets; Computational Techniques; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; Government Policy and Regulation;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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