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External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America

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  • Gustavo Adler
  • Sebastian Sosa

Abstract

Highly favorable external conditions have helped Latin America strengthen its economic fundamentals over the last decade. But, has the region built enough buffers to guard itself from a weakening of the external environment? This paper addresses this question by developing a simple framework that integrates econometric estimates of the effect of global factors on key domestic variables that determine public and external debt dynamics, with the IMF‘s standard debt sustainability framework. Results suggest that, while some countries in the region are well placed to withstand moderate or even large shocks, many would benefit from having stronger buffers to be in a position to deploy countercyclical policies, especially under tail events. External sustainability, on the other hand, does not appear to be a source of concern for most countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa, 2013. "External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 13/27, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/27
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    2. Fuad Hasanov & Reda Cherif, 2012. "Public Debt Dynamics; The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks," IMF Working Papers 12/230, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2012. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," Working Paper 12-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    4. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 452-469, April.
    5. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2007. "Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-3.
    7. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Céspedes, Luis Felipe, 2013. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 316-325.
    8. Gustavo Adler & Sebastián Sosa, 2014. "Intraregional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 456-480, March.
    9. Gustavo Adler & Camilo E Tovar Mora, 2012. "Riding Global Financial Waves; The Economic Impact of Global Financial Shocks on Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/188, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Evan Tanner & Issouf Samake, 2008. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 149-182, April.
    11. Sebastian Sosa & Gustavo Adler, 2011. "Commodity Price Cycles; The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom," IMF Working Papers 11/283, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Kei Kawakami & Rafael Romeu, 2011. "Identifying Fiscal Policy Transmission in Stochastic Debt Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 11/107, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Branimir Jovanovic & Aneta Krstevska & Neda Popovska-Kamnar, 2015. "Can Monetary Policy Affect Economic Activity under Surplus Liquidity? Some Evidence from Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-03, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
    2. Gustavo Adler & Nicolas E Magud, 2013. "Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms; Saving-Investment Patterns and a New Metric of Income Windfall," IMF Working Papers 13/103, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa, 2016. "External Factors in Debt Sustainability Analysis: An Application to Latin America?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(5), pages 81-120, June.
    4. Jorge Thompson Araujo & Ekaterina Vostroknutova & Markus Brueckner & Mateo Clavijo & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2016. "Beyond Commodities," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 25321, January.
    5. Roberto Alvarez & Jose De Gregorio, 2014. "Understanding Differences in Growth Performance in Latin America and Developing Countries between the Asian and Global Financial Crises," Working Paper Series WP14-11, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Danica Unevska-Andonova & Dijana Janevska-Stefanova, 2015. "Transmission of External Shocks in Assessing Debt Sustainability, the Case of Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-04, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
    7. João Barata R. B. Barroso, 2014. "External Sustainability and Gross Positions: are Brazilian external accounts sustainable?," Working Papers Series 362, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Adler, Gustavo & Magud, Nicolas E., 2015. "Four decades of terms-of-trade booms: A metric of income windfall," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 162-192.
    9. Jorge Thompson Araujo & Markus Brueckner & Mateo Clavijo & Ekaterina Vostroknutova & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2014. "Benchmarking the Determinants of Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Other Operational Studies 21318, The World Bank.

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