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External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America

  • Gustavo Adler
  • Sebastian Sosa

Highly favorable external conditions have helped Latin America strengthen its economic fundamentals over the last decade. But, has the region built enough buffers to guard itself from a weakening of the external environment? This paper addresses this question by developing a simple framework that integrates econometric estimates of the effect of global factors on key domestic variables that determine public and external debt dynamics, with the IMF‘s standard debt sustainability framework. Results suggest that, while some countries in the region are well placed to withstand moderate or even large shocks, many would benefit from having stronger buffers to be in a position to deploy countercyclical policies, especially under tail events. External sustainability, on the other hand, does not appear to be a source of concern for most countries.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 13/27.

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Length: 51
Date of creation: 30 Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/27
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  1. Fuad Hasanov & Reda Cherif, 2012. "Public Debt Dynamics; The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks," IMF Working Papers 12/230, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Vulentin, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos A & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality," Scholarly Articles 8694931, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Gustavo Adler & Sebastián Sosa, 2014. "Intraregional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 456-480, 03.
  4. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2007. "Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 12822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Evan C Tanner & Issouf Samaké, 2006. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt; A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 06/295, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan M. Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets," Working Paper 09-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  7. Yan Carrière–Swallow & Luis Felipe Céspedes, 2011. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in Emerging Economies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 646, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Sebastian Sosa & Gustavo Adler, 2011. "Commodity Price Cycles; The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom," IMF Working Papers 11/283, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Juan Hatchondo, 2015. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," 2015 Meeting Papers 1262, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Gustavo Adler & Camilo E Tovar Mora, 2012. "Riding Global Financial Waves; The Economic Impact of Global Financial Shocks on Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/188, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Kei Kawakami & Rafael Romeu, 2011. "Identifying Fiscal Policy Transmission in Stochastic Debt Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 11/107, International Monetary Fund.
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