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Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?

Author

Listed:
  • Camelia Minoiu
  • Chanhyun Kang
  • V.S. Subrahmanian
  • Anamaria Berea

Abstract

The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial connectedness - a possible source of systemic risk - can serve as an early warning indicator of crises. In this paper we examine the ability of connectedness in the global network of financial linkages to predict systemic banking crises. Our results indicate that increases in a country's financial interconnectedness and decreases in its neighbors' connectedness are associated with a higher probability of banking crises after controlling for macroeconomic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Camelia Minoiu & Chanhyun Kang & V.S. Subrahmanian & Anamaria Berea, 2013. "Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?," IMF Working Papers 13/267, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/267
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Catullo, Ermanno & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2015. "Towards a credit network based early warning indicator for crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 78-97.
    2. Poledna, Sebastian & Molina-Borboa, José Luis & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & van der Leij, Marco & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 70-81.
    3. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2016. "Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis," Papers 1610.08230, arXiv.org.
    4. Pirvu Daniela & Barbuceanu Mircea, 2016. "Recent Contributions Of The Statistical Physics In The Research Of Banking, Stock Exchange And Foreign Exchange Markets," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2, pages 85-92, April.
    5. Poledna, Sebastian & Bochmann, Olaf & Thurner, Stefan, 2017. "Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network-based, systemic risk-dependent financial transaction taxes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 230-246.
    6. Betz, Frank & Hautsch, Nikolaus & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Schienle, Melanie, 2016. "Systemic risk spillovers in the European banking and sovereign network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 206-224.
    7. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2017. "The Financial Connectedness between Eurozone Core and Periphery: A Disaggregated View," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2017/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    8. repec:eee:phsmap:v:490:y:2018:i:c:p:1335-1343 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. J'ozsef Mezei & Peter Sarlin, 2016. "RiskRank: Measuring interconnected risk," Papers 1601.06204, arXiv.org.
    10. Peltonen, Tuomas & Sarlin, Peter & Rancan, Michela, 2015. "Interconnectedness of the banking sector as a vulnerability to crises," Working Paper Series 1866, European Central Bank.
    11. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:41-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Hamdaoui, Mekki, 2016. "Are systemic banking crises in developed and developing countries predictable?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 114-138.

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