Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?
China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenariosâ€”with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivityâ€”may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor.
|Date of creation:||29 Jan 2013|
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- Knight, John & Deng, Quheng & Li, Shi, 2011.
"The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China,"
China Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 585-600.
- John Knight & Deng Quheng and Li Shi, 2010. "The Puzzle of Migrant Labour Shortage and Rural Labour Surplus in China," Economics Series Working Papers 494, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: Demographic Change and the Labour Supply Constraint," PGDA Working Papers 1106, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
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