Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields
Experience from the global financial crisis suggests that countriesâ€™ borrowing costs are not solely determined by macro and fiscal fundamentals. Factors such as ownership structures of government securities, among others, also play a significant role. This paper investigates the effect of â€œreal money investorsâ€ â€”domestic nonbanks and national and foreign central banksâ€”on bond yields for a sample of 45 advanced and emerging market economies. The results show that, while bond yields rise with the debt to GDP ratio, this increase is partly offset if this debt falls in the hands of real money investors. Nonetheless, for some countries there is the risk that such ownership structure could change over the long run, which would impose upward pressure on borrowing costs, especially where fiscal positions are weak.
|Date of creation:||19 Dec 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jean-Luc Vila & Dimitri Vayanos, 2009.
"A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp641, Financial Markets Group.
- Dimitri Vayanos & Jean-Luc Vila, 2009. "A preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29308, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Vayanos, Dimitri & Vila, Jean-Luc, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 7547, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dimitri Vayanos & Jean-Luc Vila, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 15487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laura Jaramillo & Anke Weber, 2012.
"Bond Yields in Emerging Economies; It Matters What State You Are In,"
IMF Working Papers
12/198, International Monetary Fund.
- Jaramillo, Laura & Weber, Anke, 2013. "Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 169-185.
- Thomas Laubach, 2003.
"New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
- Vincent Reinhart & Brian Sack, 2000. "The Economic Consequences of Disappearing Government Debt," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 163-220.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010.
"Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2010/19, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2015. "Short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(37), pages 3971-3993, August.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields," CESifo Working Paper Series 3249, CESifo Group Munich.
- Iryna Kaminska & Dimitri Vayanos & Gabriele Zinna, 2011.
"Preferred-Habitat Investors and the US Term Structure of Real Rates,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp674, Financial Markets Group.
- Kaminska, Iryna & Vayanos, Dimitri & Zinna, Gabriele, 2011. "Preferred-habitat investors and the US term structure of real rates," Bank of England working papers 435, Bank of England.
- Beltran, Daniel O. & Kretchmer, Maxwell & Marquez, Jaime & Thomas, Charles P., 2013.
"Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Treasury yields,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1120-1143.
- Daniel O. Beltran & Maxwell Kretchmer & Jaime R. Marquez & Charles P. Thomas, 2012. "Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. Treasury yields," International Finance Discussion Papers 1041, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Giannetti, Mariassunta & Laeven, Luc, 2011.
"The Flight Home Effect: Evidence from the Syndicated Loan Market During Financial Crises,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giannetti, Mariassunta & Laeven, Luc, 2012. "The flight home effect: Evidence from the syndicated loan market during financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 23-43.
- Jochen R. Andritzky, 2012. "Government Bonds and their Investors; What Are the Facts and Do they Matter?," IMF Working Papers 12/158, International Monetary Fund.
- Iva Petrova & Michael G Papaioannou & Dimitri Bellas, 2010. "Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads; Fundamentals vs Financial Stress," IMF Working Papers 10/281, International Monetary Fund.
- Richard Herd & Vincent Koen & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2011. "Financial Sector Reform in India: Time for a Second Wave?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 879, OECD Publishing.
- Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2007. "The Demand for Treasury Debt," NBER Working Papers 12881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kiichi Tokuoka, 2010. "The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt," IMF Working Papers 10/19, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.