IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/13-228.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency; A Forensic Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Dennis P Botman
  • Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
  • Waikei R Lam

Abstract

During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis P Botman & Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Waikei R Lam, 2013. "The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency; A Forensic Analysis," IMF Working Papers 13/228, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/228
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41039
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    2. Irineu Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Risk-Off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(4), pages 439-463, November.
    3. De Bock, Reinout & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2015. "The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 218-234.
    4. Bussirère, Matthieu & Lopez, Claude & Tille, Cédric, 2013. "Currency Crises in Reverse: Do Large Real Exchange Rate Appreciations Matter for Growth?," MPRA Paper 44053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Takatoshi Ito, 2007. "Myths and reality of foreign exchange interventions: an application to Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-154.
    6. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    7. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2013. "Capital Flows are Fickle; Anytime, Anywhere," IMF Working Papers 13/183, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    9. Habib, Maurizio M. & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 50-64.
    10. Matthieu Bussière & Claude Lopez & Cédric Tille, 2015. "Do real exchange rate appreciations matter for growth?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 5-45.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2015. "Japan’s exorbitant privilege," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-61.
    2. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2016. "Intra-safe haven currency behavior during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 49-64.
    3. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "Intra-safe haven currency behavior during the global financial crisis," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 199, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Pinar Yesin, 2016. "Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc," Working Papers 16.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    5. Sensoy, Ahmet, 2015. "An alternative way to track the hot money in turbulent times," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 215-220.
    6. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2017. "Safe Haven Currency and Market Uncertainty: Yen, renminbi, dollar, and alternatives," Discussion papers 17048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Faek Menla Ali & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2017. "Portfolio flows and the US dollar–yen exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 179-189, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/228. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.