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Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Author

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  • Mirko Abbritti
  • Salvatore Dell'Erba
  • Antonio Moreno
  • Sergio Sola

Abstract

This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirko Abbritti & Salvatore Dell'Erba & Antonio Moreno & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 13/223, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/223
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sowmya, Subramaniam & Prasanna, Krishna & Bhaduri, Saumitra, 2016. "Linkages in the term structure of interest rates across sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 118-139.
    2. Juan Andrés Espinosa Torres & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez, 2014. "Estimación de la prima por vencimiento de los TES en pesos del gobierno colombiano," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012333, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2016. "Financial globalisation and monetary independence," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 213-225 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-75, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    5. Ales Bulir & Jan Vlcek, 2015. "Monetary Transmission; Are Emerging Market and Low Income Countries Different?," IMF Working Papers 15/239, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    7. Lauren Stagnol, 2017. "Introducing global term structure in a risk parity framework," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Asgharian, Hossein & Liu, Lu & Larsson, Marcus, 2015. "Cross-Border Asset Holdings and Comovements in Sovereign Bond Markets," Working Papers 2015:30, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    9. repec:kap:iecepo:v:14:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10368-016-0340-8 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bonds; Developed countries; Economic models; Interest rate structures; Monetary policy; Yield Curve; Global Factors; FAVAR; Affine Term Structure Models; Term Premium; inflation; monetary economics; expansionary monetary policy; monetary policies; Time-Series Models; Open Economy Macroeconomics; Asset Pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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