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Inflation Targeting and Country Risk; An Empirical Investigation


  • Armand Fouejieu
  • Scott Roger


The sovereign debt crisis in Europe has highlighted the role of country risk premia as a link between countries’ fiscal and external balances, financial conditions and monetary policy. The purpose of this paper is to estimate how adoption of inflation targeting (IT) affects spreads. It is hypothesized that country risk premia for IT countries (especially among emerging market economies) may be lower than for other countries owing to greater policy predictability and more stable long-term inflation. The findings suggest that IT reduces the risk premium, both through adoption of the IT regime, and through the observed track record in stabilizing inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Armand Fouejieu & Scott Roger, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Country Risk; An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 13/21, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/21

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    2. Moron, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for financially vulnerable economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 23-51, February.
    3. Francisco Palomino, 2012. "Bond Risk Premiums and Optimal Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 19-40, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.
    2. Escudé, Guillermo J., 2013. "A DSGE model for a SOE with systematic interest and foreign exchange policies in which policymakers exploit the risk premium for stabilization purposes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-110.
    3. Zeev Kril & David Leiser & Avia Spivak, 2016. "What Determines the Credibility of the Central Bank of Israel in the Public Eye?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 67-93, March.
    4. Manai Daboussi, Olfa, 2014. "Inflation Targeting As a Monetary Policy Rule: Experience and Prospects," MPRA Paper 59336, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Oct 2014.
    5. Thornton, John & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2016. "Does inflation targeting reduce sovereign risk? Further evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 237-241.
    6. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Li, Jie, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and real exchange rate volatility: Does inflation targeting help or hurt?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 62-72.
    7. Alexandru MINEA & Jean-Louis COMBES & Weneyam Hippolyte BALIMA, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," Working Papers 201504, CERDI.
    8. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2016. "The nonlinear nature of country risk and its implications for DSGE models," NBP Working Papers 250, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    9. Lanzafame, Matteo & Nogueira, Reginaldo, 2013. "Inflation targeting and interest rates," MPRA Paper 46153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jacek Kotłowski & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2016. "The nonlinear nature of country risk," EcoMod2016 9416, EcoMod.


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