IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/13-192.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area; Love at Second Sight?

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Andrle
  • Jan Bruha
  • Serhat Solmaz

Abstract

This paper discusses comovement between inflation and output in the euro area. The strength of the comovement may not be apparent at first sight, but is clear at business cycle frequencies. Our results suggest that at business cycle frequency, the output and core inflation comovement is high and stable, and that inflation lags the cycle in output with roughly half of its variance. The strong relationship of output and inflation hints at the importance of demand shocks for the euro area business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Serhat Solmaz, 2013. "Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area; Love at Second Sight?," IMF Working Papers 13/192, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/192
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40938
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Phillips Curve Models with Non-Filtered Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-011/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    3. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
    4. Joseph Haslag & Yu-Chin Hsu, 2012. "Cyclical Co-movement between Output, the Price Level, and Inflation," Working Papers 1203, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    5. den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W., 2004. "The comovement between real activity and prices in the G7," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1333-1347, December.
    6. Chadha, Bankim & Prasad, Eswar, 1994. "Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 239-257, October.
    7. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    8. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Extended Phillips Curve Models with non-filtered Data," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1321, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lafourcade, Pierre & Gerali, Andrea & Brůha, Jan & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & Corbo, Vesna & Haavio, Markus & Håkanson, Christina & Hlédik, Tibor & Kátay, Gábor & Kulikov, Dmitry & Lozej, Matija , 2016. "Labour market modelling in the light of the financial crisis," Occasional Paper Series 175, European Central Bank.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Eugenio Cerutti & Lawrence Summers, 2015. "Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 21726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Tomas Adam & Robert Ambrisko & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Vilma Dingova & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlat, 2014. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2014," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as14 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Jakub Mateju, June.
    4. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Serhat Solmaz, 2016. "On the Sources of Business Cycles: Implications for DSGE Models," Working Papers 2016/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    5. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    6. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Konstantin Sorokin, 2015. "Evaluating the underlying inflation measures for Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps4, Bank of Russia.
    7. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Serhat Solmaz, 2016. "Output and Inflation Co-movement; An Update on Business-Cycle Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 16/241, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    9. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey & Sinyakov, Andrey & Sorokin, Constantine, 2015. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Labor Markets over Business Cycles: An International Comparison," Working Papers 2015/15, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    11. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:42:n:3 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro Area; Business cycles; Economic growth; Consumer price indexes; Inflation; business cycle; demand shocks; underlying inflation; trimmed mean; price level; measure of inflation; monetary economics; inflation targeting; General;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.