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Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China

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  • Tamim Bayoumi
  • Franziska L Ohnsorge

Abstract

This paper assesses the implications of Chinese capital account liberalization for capital flows. Stylized facts from capital account liberalization in advanced and large emerging market economies illustrate that capital account liberalization has historically generated large gross capital in- and outflows, but the direction of net flows has depended on many factors. An econometric portfolio allocation model finds that capital controls significantly dampen cross-border portfolio asset holdings. The model also suggests that capital account liberalization in China may trigger net portfolio outflows as large domestic savings seek to diversify abroad.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamim Bayoumi & Franziska L Ohnsorge, 2013. "Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China," IMF Working Papers 13/189, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/189
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jianping Mei & Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2009. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 225-255, November.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela Laura & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2002. "Short-run pain, long-run gain : the effects of financial liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2912, The World Bank.
    3. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 149-172, Summer.
    4. Forbes, Kristin J., 2010. "Why do foreigners invest in the United States?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 3-21, January.
    5. repec:cto:journl:v:21:y:2001:i:1:p:119-131 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Martin Schindler, 2009. "Measuring Financial Integration: A New Data Set," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 222-238, April.
    7. Bayoumi, Tamim & Saborowski, Christian, 2014. "Accounting for reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-29.
    8. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    9. Guonan Ma & Robert McCauley, 2003. "Opening China’s capital account amid ample dollar liquidity," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), China's capital account liberalisation: international perspective, volume 15, pages 25-34, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. He, Dong & Luk, Paul, 2017. "A Model Of Chinese Capital Account Liberalization," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(8), pages 1902-1934, December.
    2. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2015. "Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 76-97.
    3. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    4. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    5. Kristin Forbes & Marcel Fratzscher & Roland Straub, 2013. "Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1343, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2014. "The Role of Offshore Financial Centers in the Process of Renminbi Internationalization," ADBI Working Papers 472, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Eden Hatzvi & Jessica Meredith & William Nixon, 2015. "Chinese Capital Flows and Capital Account Liberalisation," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 39-48, December.
    8. Rakesh Mohan & Michael Debabrata Patra & Muneesh Kapur, 2013. "The International Monetary System; Where Are We and Where Do We Need to Go?," IMF Working Papers 13/224, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Hooley, John, 2013. "Bringing down the Great Wall? Global implications of capital account liberalisation in China," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(4), pages 304-315.
    10. Mark Kruger & Gurnain Pasricha, 2016. "What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account," Discussion Papers 16-10, Bank of Canada.
    11. Chen, Jinzhao & Qian, Xingwang, 2016. "Measuring on-going changes in China's capital controls: A de jure and a hybrid index data set," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 167-182.
    12. repec:eee:asieco:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:27-45 is not listed on IDEAS

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