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Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel

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  • Salvatore Dell'Erba
  • Sergio Sola

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables for a panel of OECD countries for the period 1989-2012. We find that two global factors—the global monetary and fiscal policy stances—explain more than 60 percent of the variance in the long-term interest rates. Compared to the estimates from models which do not account for global factors, we find that the importance of domestic variables in explaining long-term interest rates is weakened. Moreover, the propagation of global fiscal shocks is larger in economies characterized by macroeconomic and institutional weaknesses.

Suggested Citation

  • Salvatore Dell'Erba & Sergio Sola, 2013. "Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel," IMF Working Papers 13/159, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/159
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    Cited by:

    1. Oseni O. Isiaq & Adesoye A. Bolaji, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Term Structure of Interest Rate in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(2), pages 70-83, April.
    2. Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2013. "Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Brazil," MPRA Paper 72534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sola, Sergio & Palomba, Geremia, 2016. "Sub-nationals' risk premia in fiscal federations: Fiscal performance and institutional design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 165-187.
    4. Lozano, Ignacio & Julio, Juan Manuel, 2016. "Fiscal decentralization and economic growth in Colombia: evidence from regional-level panel data," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    5. Roel Beetsma & Jacopo Cimadomo & Oana Furtuna & Massimo Giuliodori1, 2015. "The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(83), pages 439-489.
    6. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Luca A Ricci, 2016. "Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads?," IMF Working Papers 16/246, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2015. "Descentralización Fiscal y Crecimiento Económico: Evidencia Regional en Panel de Datos para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 865, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Sergio Sola & Geremia Palomba, 2015. "Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia; Does Fiscal Performance Matter?," IMF Working Papers 15/117, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Luis Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, 2015. "Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth: Evidence from Regional-Level Panel Data for Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012498, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    10. Nkrumah, Kwabena Meneabe, 2013. "Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Brazil," MPRA Paper 85432, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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