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The Comovement in Commodity Prices; Sources and Implications

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  • Ron Alquist
  • Olivier Coibion

Abstract

We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Alquist & Olivier Coibion, 2013. "The Comovement in Commodity Prices; Sources and Implications," IMF Working Papers 13/140, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/140
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    1. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
    2. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
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    6. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    2. de Nicola, Francesca & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2014. "Co-movement of major commodity price returns: A time-series assessment:," IFPRI discussion papers 1354, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella, 2016. "Understanding Dynamic Conditional Correlations between Commodities Futures Markets," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 232223, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Davide, Marinella & Vesco, Paola, 2016. "Alternative Approaches for Rating INDCs: a Comparative Analysis," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation,and Transformation Pathways 232716, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    5. Jan Żelazny, 2016. "Zmiany na rynkach towarowych a regulacje nadzorcze w Unii Europejskiej / Changes on Commodity Markets and Regulation in the European Union," International Economics, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, issue 15, pages 199-210, September.
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-019 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
    8. Fernandez, Viviana, 2015. "Commodity price excess co-movement from a historical perspective: 1900–2010," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 698-710.
    9. Fernandez, Viviana, 2014. "Linear and non-linear causality between price indices and commodity prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 40-51.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity prices; comovement; factor models; factor analysis; global production; agricultural commodities; idiosyncratic shocks; International Business Cycles; comovement: factor models;

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