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Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?

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  • Sebastian Sosa
  • Evridiki Tsounta
  • Marie S Kim

Abstract

A favorable external environment coupled with prudent policies fostered output growth in most of Latin America during the last decade. But, what were the drivers of this strong growth performance from the supply side and will this momentum be sustainable in the years ahead? We address these questions by identifying the proximate causes of the recent high GDP growth and estimating potential growth rates for the period ahead for a large group of Latin American countries based on standard (Solow-style) growth accounting methodologies. We find that factor accumulation (especially labor), rather than growth in total factor productivity (TFP), remains the main driver of GDP growth. Moving forward, given the expected moderation of capital accumulation and some natural constraints on labor, the strong growth momentum is unlikely to be sustainable unless TFP performance improves significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Sosa & Evridiki Tsounta & Marie S Kim, 2013. "Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?," IMF Working Papers 13/109, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    2. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2005. "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean : Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7315, August.
    3. Christian Daude & Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, 2010. "On the Role of Productivity and Factor Accumulation in Economic Development in Latin America and the Caribbean," Research Department Publications 4653, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Susan M. Collins & Barry P. Bosworth, 1996. "Economic Growth in East Asia: Accumulation versus Assimilation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 135-204.
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    Blog mentions

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    1. Pourquoi la croissance a-t-elle accéléré, puis ralenti dans les pays en développement ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-09-19 15:44:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pritha Mitra & Amr Hosny & Gohar Abajyan & Mark Fischer, 2015. "Estimating Potential Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 15/62, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Sethi, Amarjit Singh, 2016. "Sources of Growth in India: Evidence from Punjab and Haryana," Journal of Regional Development and Planning, JRDP, vol. 5(1), pages 15-34.
    3. Evridiki Tsounta, 2014. "Slowdown in Emerging Markets; Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?," IMF Working Papers 14/205, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Luis M. Cubeddu & Alexander Culiuc & Ghada Fayad & Yuan Gao & Kalpana Kochhar & Annette J Kyobe & Ceyda Oner & Roberto Perrelli & Sarah Sanya & Evridiki Tsounta & Zhongxia Zhang, 2014. "Emerging Markets in Transition; Growth Prospects and Challenges," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/6, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Iván Kataryniuk & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2017. "TFP growth and commodity prices in emerging economies," Working Papers 1711, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

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