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Credit Growth in Latin America; Financial Development or Credit Boom?

Author

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  • Niels-Jakob Harbo Hansen
  • Olga Sulla

Abstract

Banking credit to the private sector in Latin America has on average increased by 7 percent of GDP from primo 2004 to ultimo 2011, with real credit in some countries growing by up to 20 percent per year. This paper documents and analyzes the patterns of credit growth in 18 countries in Latin America and uses econometric methods to determine whether it is indicative of financial deepening or poses risks of credit booms. The strongest credit growth occurred for consumption and mortgages within the household sector and for construction within the corporate sector. At the same time credit has de-dollarized in most countries and there are some signs of maturity lengthening. To assess whether the recent credit growth is excessive two different methods are applied. First, by application of HP-filters the paper finds that credit-to-GDP levels in a number of countries are above their long-term trend. Second, using a panel co-integration approach on 107 high and mid-income countries the paper estimates a model for the credit-to-GDP levels. Comparing the actual levels of credit with the ones predicted by the model we find that some countries in Latin America show significant and positive deviations. These results indicate the existence of a certain level of risk in the recent credit developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Niels-Jakob Harbo Hansen & Olga Sulla, 2013. "Credit Growth in Latin America; Financial Development or Credit Boom?," IMF Working Papers 13/106, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:13/106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Monica Hernandez, 2017. "An Unintended Consequence of Uncoordinated International Monetary Policy on Central America," Working Papers 1728, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Mexico; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 15/314, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mohamad Husam Helmi, 2016. "Islamic Banking, Credit and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1541, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. José Alves & Rita Pereira, 2017. "The Portuguese Households' Indebtedness," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. repec:wly:ijfiec:v:22:y:2017:i:1:p:44-67 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Dyna Heng & Anna Ivanova & Rodrigo Mariscal & Uma Ramakrishnan & Joyce Wong, 2016. "Advancing Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 16/81, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Maciej Albinowski, 2017. "The role of fractional-reserve banking in amplifying credit booms: evidence from panel data," Working Papers 2017-024, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    8. Channarith Meng & Roberto Leon Gonzalez, 2017. "Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 547-579, July.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Haiti; 2012 Article IV Consultation and Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility," IMF Staff Country Reports 13/90, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Alan Finkelstein-Shapiro & Andrés González Gómez, 2015. "Macroprudential Policy and Labor Market Dynamics in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 88738, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. repec:ids:ijhdev:v:4:y:2018:i:1:p:65-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Maciej Albinowski, 2017. "The role of fractional-reserve banking in amplifying credit booms: evidence from panel data," Working Papers 2016-024, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    13. Mark Joy & Marek Rusnák & Kateřina Šmídková & Bořek Vašíček, 2017. "Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 44-67, January.
    14. Asongu, Simplice & Asongu, Ndemaze, 2017. "Comparative Determinants of Quality of Growth in Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 80650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Dušan Stojanović & Danilo Stojanović, 2015. "Excessive Credit Growth Or Catching Up Process: The Case Of Central, Eastern And Southeastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 60(206), pages 7-44, July - Se.

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    Keywords

    Latin America; Credit boom; financial development; panel co-integration; banking; banking sector; banking crisis; banking crises; bank equity;

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