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Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation

Author

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  • Ales Bulir
  • David-Jan Jansen
  • Martin Cihak

Abstract

This paper examines whether the clarity of central bank communication about inflation has changed with the economic environment. We use readability statistics and content analysis to study the clarity of communication on the inflation outlook by seven central banks between 1997 and 2010. Overall, we find no strong indications that central banks were less clear in explaining their policies when faced with higher uncertainty or a less favorable inflation outlook. The global financial crisis, however, did have a negative impact on clarity of central bank communication.

Suggested Citation

  • Ales Bulir & David-Jan Jansen & Martin Cihak, 2012. "Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation," IMF Working Papers 12/9, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ales Bulír & Martin Cihák & David-Jan Jansen, 2011. "Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation," DNB Working Papers 333, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Tiff Macklem, 2005. "Commentary : central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 475-494.
    3. Alan S. Blinder, 2008. "Talking about Monetary Policy: The Virtues (and Vices?) of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 1048, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    4. Aleš Bulíř & Martin Čihák & Kateřina Šmídková, 2013. "Writing Clearly: The ECB 's Monetary Policy Communication," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(1), pages 50-72, February.
    5. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    6. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Geraats, Petra M., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, March.
    7. Jansen, David-Jan, 2011. "Mumbling with great incoherence: Was it really so difficult to understand Alan Greenspan?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 70-72, October.
    8. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
    9. Benjamin Born & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2014. "Central Bank Communication on Financial Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(577), pages 701-734, June.
    10. Katerina Smídková & Viktor Kotlán & David Navrátil & Ales Bulir, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Communication; It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports," IMF Working Papers 08/234, International Monetary Fund.
    11. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    13. Chair & Malcolm D. Knight, 2005. "General discussion : central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 495-505.
    14. Sònia Muñoz & Samir Jahjah & Martin Cihak & Sharika Teh Sharifuddin & Kalin I Tintchev, 2012. "Financial Stability Reports; What Are they Good for?," IMF Working Papers 12/1, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Petra Gerlach‐Kristen, 2004. "Is the MPC's Voting Record Informative about Future UK Monetary Policy?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 299-313, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2016. "From Silence to Voice: Monetary Policy, Central Bank Governance and Communication," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1627, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    3. Ludovic Desmedt & Matthieu Llorca, 2016. "L’euro, le bourdon et le banquier central," Post-Print hal-01430375, HAL.
    4. Ales Bulír & Martin Cihák & David-Jan Jansen, 2011. "Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation," DNB Working Papers 333, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Aleš Bulíř & Martin Čihák & David-Jan Jansen, 2013. "What Drives Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 125-145, February.
    6. Pierre L. Siklos, 2013. "The Global Financial Crisis and the Language of Central Banking: Central Bank Guidance in Good Times and in Bad," CAMA Working Papers 2013-58, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Jonne O. Lehtimäki & Marianne Palmu, 2019. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Predictability under Uncertain Economic Conditions," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 8(2), pages 5-32.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central banks; Inflation; Monetary policy; Public information notices; Transparency; communication; clarity; central bank; inflation target;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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