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Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global food inflation has significant short-run effects that build over time. Inflation outcomes simulated under alternative global wheat price assumptions underscore these vulnerabilities, and suggest that sustained administrative measures are unlikely to prove effective. In line with structural economic features, the interest rate channel of monetary policy is found to be limited, arguing for a broad policy strategy to control more expansive inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, measures to enhance supply responses, deepen domestic financial markets, develop adequate social safety nets, and increase central bank independence are warranted.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 12/86, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/86
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25794
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Crowe, Christopher & Meade, Ellen E., 2008. "Central bank independence and transparency: Evolution and effectiveness," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 763-777, December.
    2. Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, January.
    3. Inci Ötker & David Vávra & Francisco F. Vazquez & Luis Ignacio Jácome & Karl F Habermeier & Kotaro Ishi & Alessandro Giustiniani & Turgut Kisinbay, 2009. "Inflation Pressures and Monetary Policy Options in Emerging and Developing Countries—A Cross Regional Perspective," IMF Working Papers 09/1, International Monetary Fund.
    4. M S Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2001. "What determines inflation in emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 1-38 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Marco Arnone & Bernard J Laurens & Jean-François Segalotto & Martin Sommer, 2009. "Central Bank Autonomy: Lessons from Global Trends," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 263-296, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Airaudo & Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 16/55, International Monetary Fund.
    2. World Bank, 2014. "Kyrgyz Republic Public Expenditure Review Policy Notes : Strategic Setting," World Bank Other Operational Studies 19310, The World Bank.
    3. Shikha Jha & P.V. Srinivasan, 2014. "Food price inflation, growth and poverty," Chapters,in: Handbook on Food, chapter 4, pages 72-99 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. World Bank Group, 2015. "Kyrgyz Republic," World Bank Other Operational Studies 22957, The World Bank.
    5. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 3. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(3).
    6. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:159-184 is not listed on IDEAS

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