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Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows

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  • Malika Pant
  • Yanliang Miao

Abstract

Capital flows data from Balance of Payments statistics often lag 3-6 months, which renders timely surveillance and policy deliberation difficult. To address the tension, we propose two coincident composite indicators for capital flows that improve upon existing proxies. We find that the most widely used proxy, the capital tracker, often overpredicts net flows by 30 percent. We augment the tracker into a composite indicator by assigning to it a lesser but optimally estimated weight while incorporating other regional and global coincident correlates of capital flows. The proposed composite indicator of net flows outperforms the capital tracker in its original format. To complement the indicator with an even timelier variant, we also utilize the EPFR high frequency coverage of gross bond and equity flows as an indicator on foreign investors' sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Malika Pant & Yanliang Miao, 2012. "Coincident Indicators of Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 12/55, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/55
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    Cited by:

    1. Forbes, Kristin & Fratzscher, Marcel & Kostka, Thomas & Straub, Roland, 2016. "Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 85-104.
    2. Fratzscher, Marcel & Lo Duca, Marco & Straub, Roland, 2012. "A global monetary tsunami? On the spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," CEPR Discussion Papers 9195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    4. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2018. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 330-377.
    5. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 0. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-55.
    6. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    7. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin, 2016. "The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes," Staff Working Papers 16-9, Bank of Canada.
    8. Kyoungsoo Yoon & Jayoung Kim, 2015. "Costs of Foreign Capital Flows in Emerging Market Economies: Unexpected Economic Growth and Increased Financial Market Volatility," Working Papers 2015-21, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    9. Bonizzi, Bruno, 2017. "Institutional investors’ allocation to emerging markets: A panel approach to asset demand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 47-64.
    10. Kang, Hyunju & Suh, Hyunduk, 2015. "Reverse spillover: Evidence during emerging market financial turmoil in 2013–2014," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 97-115.
    11. Converse, Nathan, 2018. "Uncertainty, capital flows, and maturity mismatch," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 260-275.
    12. Koepke, Robin, 2018. "Fed policy expectations and portfolio flows to emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 170-194.
    13. Stracca, Livio & Lo Duca, Marco, 2014. "The effect of G20 summits on global financial markets," Working Paper Series 1668, European Central Bank.
    14. Puy, Damien, 2016. "Mutual funds flows and the geography of contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 73-93.
    15. Cenedese, Gino & Elard, Ilaf, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policy and the portfolio choice of international mutual funds," Bank of England working papers 705, Bank of England.
    16. Yasemin Erduman & Neslihan Kaya, 2014. "Determinants of Bond Flows to Emerging Markets: How Do They Change Over Time?," Working Papers 1428, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    17. Yasemin Barlas & Neslihan Kaya, 2013. "Parasal Genisleme Politikalarinin Gelismekte Olan Ulke Portfoy Akimlari Kompozisyonuna Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1301, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    18. Laura Pareja Restrepo, 2016. "Financial Interdependence and Contagion: the transmission of financial stress from the United States to Latin America," Documentos CEDE 014235, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    19. Marcel Fratzscher, 2014. "Capital Flow Policies, Monetary Policy and Coordination," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Matthew Read (ed.), Financial Flows and Infrastructure Financing, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Tim A Kroencke & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2015. "Global Asset Allocation Shifts," BIS Working Papers 497, Bank for International Settlements.

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