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Oil Exporters' Dilemma; How Much to Save and How Much to Invest

  • Reda Cherif
  • Fuad Hasanov

Policymakers in oil-exporting countries confront the question of how to allocate oil revenues among consumption, saving, and investment in the face of high income volatility. We study this allocation problem in a precautionary saving and investment model under uncertainty. Consistent with data in the 2000s, precautionary saving is sizable and the marginal propensity to consume out of permanent shocks is below one, in stark contrast to the predictions of the perfect foresight model. The optimal investment rate is high if productivity in the tradable sector is high enough.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/4.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/4
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  1. Ton S. van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2012. "How to Spend a Windfall: Dealing with volatility and capital scarcity," OxCarre Working Papers 085, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  2. Alun H. Thomas & Tamim Bayoumi, 2009. "Today Versus tomorrow; The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income," IMF Working Papers 09/248, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Rodrigo O. Valdés & Eduardo Engel, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 00/118, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2009. "Aggressive Oil Extraction and Precautionary Saving: Coping with Volatility," OxCarre Working Papers 021, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  5. Paul Collier & Rick Van Der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2010. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 84-118, April.
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  7. Elif C. Arbatli, 2009. "Futures Markets, Oil Prices, and the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," 2009 Meeting Papers 406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Carroll, Christopher D, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55, February.
  10. Douglas Dacy & Fuad Hasanov, 2011. "A Finance Approach To Estimating Consumption Parameters," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 122-154, 01.
  11. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "Precautionary Saving and the Marginal Propensity to Consume out of Permanent Income," NBER Working Papers 8233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Borensztein, Eduardo & Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2013. "Macro-hedging for commodity exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 105-116.
  13. Alun H. Thomas & Jun Il Kim & Aqib Aslam, 2008. "Equilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/198, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer.
  15. Frederick Van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2009. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 2571, CESifo Group Munich.
  16. Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & Shu-Chun S. Yang & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2012. "Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 12/274, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Robert J. Barro, 2007. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," NBER Working Papers 13690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 12/12, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
  20. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2012. "The Volatility Trap; Precautionary Saving, Investment, and Aggregate Risk," IMF Working Papers 12/134, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Rodriguez, Francisco & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1999. " Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 277-303, September.
  22. Damiano Sandri, 2011. "Precautionary Savings and Global Imbalances in World General Equilibrium," IMF Working Papers 11/122, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2011. "The volatility trap: why do big savers invest relatively little?," MPRA Paper 31286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. repec:idb:brikps:72498 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Agustin Roitman & Christian Daude, 2011. "Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 11/60, International Monetary Fund.
  26. H. Takizawa & E. H. Gardner & Kenichi Ueda, 2004. "Are Developing Countries Better off Spending their Oil Wealth Upfront?," IMF Working Papers 04/141, International Monetary Fund.
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