Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil
We study the optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option approach. The numerical method is flexible enough to solve a model with several state variables, to discuss the effect of risk aversion, and to take into account uncertainty in the size of reserves. Optimal extraction in the baseline model is found to be volatile. If the oil producer is risk averse, production is more stable, but spare capacity is much higher than what is typically observed. We show that decisions are very sensitive to expectations on the equilibrium oil price using a mean reverting model of the oil price where the equilibrium price is also a random variable. Oil production was cut during the 2008â€“2009 crisis, and we find that the cut in production was larger for OPEC, for countries facing a lower discount rate, as predicted by the model, and for countries whose governmentsâ€™ finances are less dependent on oil revenues. However, the net present value of a countryâ€™s oil reserves would be increased significantly (by 100 percent, in the most extreme case) if production was cut completely when prices fall below the country's threshold price. If several producers were to adopt such strategies, world oil prices would be higher but more stable.
|Date of creation:||17 Dec 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nagae, Takeshi & Akamatsu, Takashi, 2008. "A generalized complementarity approach to solving real option problems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1754-1779, June.
- James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
- Samu Peura & Jussi Keppo, 2006. "Optimal Bank Capital with Costly Recapitalization," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 2163-2202, July.
- Broadie, Mark & Glasserman, Paul, 1997. "Pricing American-style securities using simulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1323-1352, June.
- Lajos Gergely Gyurko & Ben Hambly & Jan Hendrik Witte, 2011. "Monte Carlo methods via a dual approach for some discrete time stochastic control problems," Papers 1112.4351, arXiv.org.
- L. C. G. Rogers, 2002. "Monte Carlo valuation of American options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 271-286.
- Luis H. R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2004.
"Does Risk Aversion Accelerate Optimal Forest Rotation under Uncertainty?,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1285, CESifo Group Munich.
- Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2006. "Does risk aversion accelerate optimal forest rotation under uncertainty?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 171-184, December.
- Octavio A. F. Tourinho., 1979. "The Option Value of Reserves of Natural Resources," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 94, University of California at Berkeley.
- repec:spr:compst:v:71:y:2010:i:3:p:503-533 is not listed on IDEAS
- René Carmona & Nizar Touzi, 2008. "Optimal Multiple Stopping And Valuation Of Swing Options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 239-268.
- Christian Bender, 2011. "Dual pricing of multi-exercise options under volume constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, January.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Farzin, Y. H., 2001. "The impact of oil price on additions to US proven reserves," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 271-292, July.
- Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011.
"Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource‐Rich Developing Economies,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 1-30, March.
- Rick Van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Harnessing windfall revenues: Optimal policies for resource-rich developing economies," Economics Series Working Papers 543, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Frederick Van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2009. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 2571, CESifo Group Munich.
- Nikolay Aleksandrov & Raphael Espinoza, 2011. "Optimal Oil Extraction as a multiple Real Option," OxCarre Working Papers 064, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
- N. Aleksandrov & B. Hambly, 2010. "A dual approach to multiple exercise option problems under constraints," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 71(3), pages 503-533, June.
- Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
- Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Keppo, Jussi, 2002. "The impact of delivery lags on irreversible investment under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 173-180, January.
- Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November.
- Patrick Jaillet & Ehud I. Ronn & Stathis Tompaidis, 2004. "Valuation of Commodity-Based Swing Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(7), pages 909-921, July.
- N. Meinshausen & B. M. Hambly, 2004. "Monte Carlo Methods For The Valuation Of Multiple-Exercise Options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 557-583.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.