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Spring Forward or Fall Back? The Post-Crisis Recovery of Firms

  • Leandro Medina

This paper studies corporate performance in the aftermath of the global crisis by examining 6,581 manufacturing firms in 48 developed and developing countries in 2010, identifying factors of resilience as well as vulnerability. Based on a cross-sectional analysis, the results show that pre-crisis leverage and short-term debt have had negative effects on the speed of the recovery, while asset tangibility has had positive effects. The negative effect of leverage is non-linear, being particularly strong in firms with high pre-crisis leverage. Furthermore, the effects are different for advanced and emerging market economies. The paper also shows that the macroeconomic framework critically matters for firm growth. In particular, in countries that have allowed the exchange rate to depreciate, firms have had a faster recovery in sectors highly dependent on trade.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/292.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 12 Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/292
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  1. Nigel Driffield & Vidya Mahambare & Sarmistha Pal, 2005. "How Ownership Structure Affects Capital Structure and Firm Performance? Recent Evidence from East Asia," Finance 0509028, EconWPA.
  2. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1999. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," Working Papers 99-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  8. Huynh, Kim P. & Petrunia, Robert J., 2010. "Age effects, leverage and firm growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1003-1013, May.
  9. Nigel Driffield & Sarmistha Pal, 2007. "How Does Ownership Structure Affect Capital Structure and Firm Value? Recent Evidence from East Asia," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 07-04, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
  10. Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2007. "Do Tests of Capital Structure Theory Mean What They Say?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1747-1787, 08.
  11. McConnell, John J. & Servaes, Henri, 1995. "Equity ownership and the two faces of debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 131-157, September.
  12. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Driffield, Nigel & Pal, Sarmistha & Roland, Isabelle, 2010. "Excess Leverage and Productivity Growth in Emerging Economies: Is There A Threshold Effect?," IZA Discussion Papers 4834, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
  14. Jen Baggs & Eugene Beaulieu & Loretta Fung, 2010. "Are Service Firms Affected By Exchange Rate Movements?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(s1), pages S156-S176, 06.
  15. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  16. Fischer, Edwin O & Heinkel, Robert & Zechner, Josef, 1989. " Dynamic Capital Structure Choice: Theory and Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 19-40, March.
  17. Claessens, Stijn & Tong, Hui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2012. "From the financial crisis to the real economy: Using firm-level data to identify transmission channels," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-387.
  18. Prakash Kannan, 2010. "Credit Conditions and Recoveries From Recessions Associated with Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/83, International Monetary Fund.
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