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Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt

  • Serkan Arslanalp
  • Takahiro Tsuda
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    Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this methodology, it introduces a dataset for 24 major advanced economies that can be used to track US$42 trillion of sovereign debt holdings on a quarterly basis over 2004-11. While recent outflows from euro periphery countries have received wide attention, most sovereign borrowers have continued to increase reliance on foreign investors. This may have helped reduce borrowing costs, but it can imply higher refinancing risks going forward. Meanwhile, advanced economy banks’ exposure to their own government debt has begun to increase across the board after the global financial crisis, strengthening sovereign-bank linkages. In light of these risks, the paper proposes a framework—sovereign funding shock scenarios (FSS)—to conduct forward-looking analysis to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to sudden investor outflows, which can be used along with standard debt sustainability analyses (DSA). It also introduces two risk indices—investor base risk index (IRI) and foreign investor position index (FIPI)—to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to shifts in investor behavior.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/284.

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    Length: 62
    Date of creation: 03 Dec 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/284
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    1. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Sudden stops in the euro area," Policy Contributions 718, Bruegel.
    2. Philip Turner, 2012. "Weathering financial crisis: domestic bond markets in EMEs," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Weathering financial crises: bond markets in Asia and the Pacific, volume 63, pages 15-34 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Gustavo Adler, 2012. "Intertwined Sovereign and Bank Solvencies in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Crisis," IMF Working Papers 12/178, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Daniel, L., 2008. "Foreign investors’ participation in emerging market economies’ domestic bond markets," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 12, pages 61-77, Summer.
    5. Merler, S. & Pisani-Ferry, J., 2012. "Hazardous tango: sovereign-bank interdependence and financial stability in the euro area," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 201-210, April.
    6. Jochen R. Andritzky, 2012. "Government Bonds and their Investors; What Are the Facts and Do they Matter?," IMF Working Papers 12/158, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Guillermo Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    8. Christoph Trebesch & Michael G Papaioannou & Udaibir S. Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010; Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 12/203, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1985. "Portfolio Crowding-out, Empirically Estimated," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1041-65, Supp..
    10. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Who's afraid of sovereign bonds?," Policy Contributions 695, Bruegel.
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