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Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt


  • Serkan Arslanalp
  • Takahiro Tsuda


Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this methodology, it introduces a dataset for 24 major advanced economies that can be used to track US$42 trillion of sovereign debt holdings on a quarterly basis over 2004-11. While recent outflows from euro periphery countries have received wide attention, most sovereign borrowers have continued to increase reliance on foreign investors. This may have helped reduce borrowing costs, but it can imply higher refinancing risks going forward. Meanwhile, advanced economy banks’ exposure to their own government debt has begun to increase across the board after the global financial crisis, strengthening sovereign-bank linkages. In light of these risks, the paper proposes a framework—sovereign funding shock scenarios (FSS)—to conduct forward-looking analysis to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to sudden investor outflows, which can be used along with standard debt sustainability analyses (DSA). It also introduces two risk indices—investor base risk index (IRI) and foreign investor position index (FIPI)—to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to shifts in investor behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Serkan Arslanalp & Takahiro Tsuda, 2012. "Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 12/284, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/284

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Klinger & Petr Teply, 2016. "The Nexus Between Systemic Risk and Sovereign Crises," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 50-69, February.
    2. Tomáš Klinger & Petr Teply, 2014. "Modelling Interconnections in the Global Financial System in the Light of Systemic Risk," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 8(1), pages 64-88.
    3. Cornand, Camille & Gandré, Pauline & Gimet, Céline, 2016. "Increase in home bias in the Eurozone debt crisis: The role of domestic shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 445-469.
    4. David Tison, 2014. "Impact of Non-cooperative Oligopoly of the Banking System on Its Pro-cyclicality in the Czech Republic," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 8(1), pages 47-63.
    5. Engler, Philipp & Große Steffen, Christoph, 2016. "Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 34-61.
    6. Andritzky, Jochen & Christofzik, Désirée I. & Feld, Lars P. & Scheuering, Uwe, 2018. "A mechanism to regulate sovereign debt restructuring in the euro area," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 18/01, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..
    7. Broner, Fernando & Erce, Aitor & Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2014. "Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 114-142.
    8. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2016. "Price effects of sovereign debt auctions in the euro-zone: The role of the crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 30-53.
    9. Blattner, Tobias & Joyce, Michael A. S., 2016. "Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE," Working Paper Series 1957, European Central Bank.
    10. E. Mengus, 2014. "International Bailouts: Why Did Banks' Collective Bet Lead Europe to Rescue Greece?," Working papers 502, Banque de France.
    11. Andritzky, Jochen & Christofzik, Désirée I. & Feld, Lars P. & Scheuering, Uwe, 2016. "A mechanism to regulate sovereign debt restructuring in the euro area," Working Papers 04/2016, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    12. Gianluca Cafiso, 2014. "Debt Sustainability in the Case of External Debt. An Analysis Based on Italy's Treasury Auctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 5021, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Gianluca Cafiso, 2013. "Public-Debt Financing in the case of External Debt," Working Papers 2013-37, CEPII research center.
    14. repec:fip:fedpei:00019 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Konopczak, Michal, 2015. "Government debt holdings of non-residents – an analysis of the impact on selected emerging economies’ sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 68597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Eleonora Cutrini and Giorgio Galeazzi, 2014. "Contagion in the Euro crisis: capital flows and trade linkages," Working Papers 44-2014, Macerata University, Department of Studies on Economic Development (DiSSE), revised Nov 2014.
    17. Tomas Pavlicek, 2014. "The Developmnet of the Self-employed Sector in the Czech Republic in the Years 2006 - 2010," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 8(1), pages 28-46.
    18. Hetzel, Robert L., 2015. "A Comparison of Greece and Germany: Lessons for the Eurozone?," Working Paper 15-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, revised 30 Jul 2015.
    19. Arai, Real & Ueda, Junji, 2013. "A numerical evaluation of the sustainable size of the primary deficit in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-75.
    20. Bruno, Brunella & Nocera, Giacomo & Resti, Andrea Cesare, 2017. "Are risk-based capital requirements detrimental to corporate lending? Evidence from Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 12007, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Jaroslav Vostatek, 2014. "Tax Treatment of Public and Private Pensions," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 8(1), pages 7-27.
    22. Fabian Lindner, 2013. "Banken treiben Eurokrise," IMK Report 82-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    23. Bental, Benjamin & Demougin, Dominique, 2016. "Privatizing profits and socializing losses with smoothly operating capital markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 179-194.


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