Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives; A Network Analysis of Contagion and Its Mitigation with Super-Spreader Tax
Financial network analysis is used to provide firm level bottom-up holistic visualizations of interconnections of financial obligations in global OTC derivatives markets. This helps to identify Systemically Important Financial Intermediaries (SIFIs), analyse the nature of contagion propagation, and also monitor and design ways of increasing robustness in the network. Based on 2009 FDIC and individually collected firm level data covering gross notional, gross positive (negative) fair value and the netted derivatives assets and liabilities for 202 financial firms which includes 20 SIFIs, the bilateral flows are empirically calibrated to reflect data-based constraints. This produces a tiered network with a distinct highly clustered central core of 12 SIFIs that account for 78 percent of all bilateral exposures and a large number ofÂ financial intermediaries (FIs) on the periphery. The topology of the network results in the â€œToo- Interconnected-To-Failâ€ (TITF) phenomenon in that the failure of any member of the central tier will bring down other members with the contagion coming to an abrupt end when the â€˜super-spreadersâ€™ have demised. As these SIFIs account for the bulk of capital in the system, ipso facto no bank among the top tier can be allowed to fail, highlighting the untenable implicit socialized guarantees needed for these markets to operate at their current levels. Systemic risk costs of highly connected SIFIs nodes are not priced into their holding of capital or collateral. An eigenvector centrality based â€˜super-spreaderâ€™ tax has been designed and tested for its capacity to reduce the potential socialized losses from failure of SIFIs.
|Date of creation:||30 Nov 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Morten L. Bech & Enghin Atalay, 2008.
"The topology of the federal funds market,"
354, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Bech, Morten L. & Atalay, Enghin, 2010. "The topology of the federal funds market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(22), pages 5223-5246.
- Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2010.
"Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo,"
in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary B. Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2009. "Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo," NBER Working Papers 15223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2009. "Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2358, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
- Florian Wagener & Cars Hommes & William Brock, 2006.
"More hedging instruments may destabilize markets,"
wp06-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2006. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- William Brock & Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2006. "More Hedging Instruments may destablize Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-080/1, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Apr 2008.
- Kirman, Alan & Markose, Sheri M & Giasante, Simone & Pin, Paolo, 2007.
"Marginal contribution, reciprocity and equity in segregated groups: Bounded rationality and self-organization in social networks,"
Economics Discussion Papers
3718, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Kirman, Alan & Markose, Sheri & Giansante, Simone & Pin, Paolo, 2007. "Marginal contribution, reciprocity and equity in segregated groups: Bounded rationality and self-organization in social networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2085-2107, June.
- F. Kyriakopoulos & S. Thurner & C. Puhr & S. W. Schmitz, 2009. "Network and eigenvalue analysis of financial transaction networks," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 523-531, October.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Has Finance Made the World Riskier?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 499-533.
- Kavonius, Ilja Kristian & Castrén, Olli, 2009. "Balance Sheet Interlinkages and Macro-Financial Risk Analysis in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1124, European Central Bank.
- Sinha, Sitabhra, 2005. "Complexity vs. stability in small-world networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(1), pages 147-153.
- Markose, Sheri M, 2004.
"Computability and Evolutionary Complexity: Markets As Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS),"
Economics Discussion Papers
3730, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Sheri M. Markose, 2005. "Computability and Evolutionary Complexity: Markets as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(504), pages F159-F192, 06.
- X. Freixas & B. Parigi & J-C. Rochet, 2000.
"Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by theCentral Bank,"
DNB Staff Reports (discontinued)
47, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2000. "Systemic risk, interbank relations, and liquidity provision by the central bank," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 611-640.
- Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-38, August.
- Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean Charles Rochet, 1998. "Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank," Economics Working Papers 440, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
- Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1999. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," CEPR Discussion Papers 2325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
- Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007.
"The topology of interbank payment flows,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
- Michael R. Darby, 1994. "Over-the-Counter Derivatives and Systemic Risk to the Global Financial System," NBER Working Papers 4801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Lux, Daniel Fricke, 2012.
"Core-Periphery Structure in the Overnight Money Market: Evidence from the e-MID Trading Platform,"
Kiel Working Papers
1759, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Fricke, Daniel & Lux, Thomas, 2012. "Core-periphery structure in the overnight money market: Evidence from the e-MID trading platform," Kiel Working Papers 1759, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Marco Galbiati & Simone Giansante, 2010. "Emergence of networks in large value payment systems (LVPSs)," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 0110, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
- Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012.
"Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
- Stefano Battiston & Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2009. "Liaisons Dangereuses: Increasing Connectivity, Risk Sharing, and Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 15611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Markose, Sheri & Giansante, Simone & Shaghaghi, Ali Rais, 2012. "‘Too interconnected to fail’ financial network of US CDS market: Topological fragility and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 627-646.
- Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2010. "Regulatory Capital Charges for Too-Connected-to-Fail Institutions; A Practical Proposal," IMF Working Papers 10/98, International Monetary Fund.
- repec:esx:essedp:629 is not listed on IDEAS
- Manmohan Singh, 2011. "Making OTC Derivatives Safeâ€”A Fresh Look," IMF Working Papers 11/66, International Monetary Fund.
- Darrell Duffie, 2010.
"The failure mechanics of dealer banks,"
BIS Working Papers
301, Bank for International Settlements.
- repec:esx:essedp:594 is not listed on IDEAS
- Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007.
"Network models and financial stability,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.