Investment-Led Growth in China; Global Spillovers
Over the past decade, China’s growth model has become more reliant on investment and its footprint in global imports has widened substantially. Several economies within China’s supply chain are increasingly exposed to its investment-led growth and face growing risks from a deceleration in investment in China. This note quantifies potential global spillovers from an investment slowdown in China. It finds that a one percentage point slowdown in investment in China is associated with a reduction of global growth of just under one-tenth of a percentage point. The impact is about five times larger than in 2002. Regional supply chain economies and commodity exporters with relatively less diversified economies are most vulnerable to an investment slowdown in China. The spillover effects also register strongly across a range of macroeconomic, trade, and financial variables among G20 trading partners.
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- Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2007.
"Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness,"
NBER Chapters,in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 429-478
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marc Giannoni & Jean Boivin, 2008. "Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," 2008 Meeting Papers 1067, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2008. "Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 13736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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