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The Spillover Effects of a Downturn in China’s Real Estate Investment

Author

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  • Ashvin Ahuja
  • Alla Myrvoda

Abstract

Real estate investment accounts for a quarter of total fixed asset investment (FAI) in China. The real estate sector’s extensive industrial and financial linkages make it a special type of economic activity, especially where the credit creation process relies primarily on collateral, like in China. As a result, the impact on economic activity of a collapse in real estate investment in China—though a low-probability event—would be sizable, with large spillovers to a number of China’s trading partners. Using a two-region factor-augmented vector autoregression model that allows for interaction between China and the rest of the G20 economies, we find that a 1-percent decline in China’s real estate investment would shave about 0.1 percent off China’s real GDP within the first year, with negative spillover impacts to China’s G20 trading partners that would cause global output to decline by roughly 0.05 percent from baseline. Japan, Korea, and Germany would be among the hardest hit. In that event, commodity prices, especially metal prices, could fall by as much as 0.8–2.2 percent below baseline one year after the shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashvin Ahuja & Alla Myrvoda, 2012. "The Spillover Effects of a Downturn in China’s Real Estate Investment," IMF Working Papers 12/266, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/266
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," NBER Chapters,in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 429-478 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 164-175.
    2. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    3. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Andritzky, Jochen & Kassner, Bernhard & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2016. "Propagation of changes in demand through international trade: Case study China," Working Papers 10/2016, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    5. World Bank Group, 2017. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2017," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 25823.
    6. repec:wbk:wbpubs:28422 is not listed on IDEAS

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