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Oil and the World Economy; Some Possible Futures

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  • Michael Kumhof
  • Dirk V Muir

Abstract

This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kumhof & Dirk V Muir, 2012. "Oil and the World Economy; Some Possible Futures," IMF Working Papers 12/256, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/256
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles A. S. Hall & Stephen Balogh & David J.R. Murphy, 2009. "What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have?," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Benes, Jaromir & Chauvet, Marcelle & Kamenik, Ondra & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Mursula, Susanna & Selody, Jack, 2015. "The future of oil: Geology versus technology," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 207-221.
    4. Ayres, Robert U., 2007. "On the practical limits to substitution," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 115-128, February.
    5. Ayres, Robert U. & Warr, Benjamin, 2005. "Accounting for growth: the role of physical work," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 181-209, June.
    6. Sorrell, Steve & Miller, Richard & Bentley, Roger & Speirs, Jamie, 2010. "Oil futures: A comparison of global supply forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4990-5003, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gissela Landa & Frédéric Reynès & Ivan Islas & François-Xavier Bellock & Fabio Grazi, 2015. "Double Dividend of Low-carbon Growth in Mexico: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Assessment," Sciences Po publications 2015-09, Sciences Po.
    2. Gissela Landa & Frédéric Reynès & Ivan Islas & François-Xavier Bellock & Fabio Grazi, 2015. "Toward a low carbon growth in Mexico : is a double dividend possible ? A dynamic general equilibrium assessment," Sciences Po publications 2015-23, Sciences Po.
    3. Kümmel, Reiner & Lindenberger, Dietmar & Weiser, Florian, 2015. "The economic power of energy and the need to integrate it with energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 833-843.
    4. Malmaeus, J. Mikael & Alfredsson, Eva C., 2017. "Potential Consequences on the Economy of Low or No Growth - Short and Long Term Perspectives," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 57-64.
    5. Martin de Wit & Matthew Kuperus Heun & Douglas J Crookes, 2013. "An overview of salient factors, relationships and values to support integrated energy-economic systems dynamic modelling," Working Papers 02/2013, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    6. Elekdag, Selim & Muir, Dirk & Wu, Yiqun, 2015. "Trade linkages, balance sheets, and spillovers: The Germany-Central European Supply Chain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 374-387.
    7. Boufateh, Talel & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & El Montasser, Ghassen & Issaoui, Fakhri, 2013. "Dynamic relationship between energy consumption and income in Tunisia: A SVECM approach," MPRA Paper 44539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Landa Rivera, Gissela & Reynès, Frédéric & Islas Cortes, Ivan & Bellocq, François-Xavier & Grazi, Fabio, 2016. "Towards a low carbon growth in Mexico: Is a double dividend possible? A dynamic general equilibrium assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 314-327.

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