IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

  • Paul Cashin
  • Kamiar Mohaddes
  • Mehdi Raissi
  • Maziar Raissi

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/253.

in new window

Length: 41
Date of creation: 23 Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/253
Contact details of provider: Postal:
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA

Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
  2. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," IMF Working Papers 07/110, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M., 2011. "Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1164, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Chudik, Alexander & Fidora, Michael, 2011. "Using the global dimension to identify shocks with sign restrictions," Working Paper Series 1318, European Central Bank.
  5. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
  6. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 12/12, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel P, 2010. "The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 7753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Fattouh, Bassam, 2007. "The drivers of oil prices: the usefulness and limitations of non-structural models, supply-demand frameworks, and informal approaches," EIB Papers 6/2007, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  10. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1998. "International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 281-296, September.
  12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
  13. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," Discussion Paper 1999-28, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  14. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Holly, Sean & Dees, Stephane & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2007. "Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 1, pages 1-20.
  15. Esfahani, H. S. & Mohaddes, K. & Pesaran, M. H., 2012. "An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  16. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
  17. G. Peersman & I. Van Robays & -, 2009. "Cross-Country Differences in the Effects of Oil Shocks," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/629, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  18. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  19. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 15002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Esfahani, H.S. & Mohaddes, K. & Pesaran, M.H., 2009. "Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0944, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  21. Raissi, M., 2011. "A Linear Quadratic Approach to Optimal Monetary Policy with Unemployment and Sticky Prices: The Case of a Distorted Steady State," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1146, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  22. Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Richard J Smith & Yongcheol Shin, 1999. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," ESE Discussion Papers 38, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  23. Paul Cashin & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2012. "The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 12/255, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-85, March.
  25. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci & TengTeng Xu, 2011. "China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4732, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  26. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 325-339, April.
  27. Blanchard, Olivier J & Galí, Jordi, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
  29. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," NCER Working Paper Series 57, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  30. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
  31. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2010. "Identifying the Global Transmission of the 2007-09 Financial Crisis in a GVAR Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. Kamiar Mohaddes & Oral H. Williams, 2013. "Inflation Differentials In The Gcc: Does The Oil Cycle Matter?," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1350012-1-1.
  33. Lee, Kevin C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1993. "Persistence profiles and business cycle fluctuations in a disaggregated model of U.K. output growth," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 293-322, September.
  34. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
  35. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 1229, CESifo Group Munich.
  36. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," Working Papers 0711, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  37. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
  38. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
  39. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market," Staff Working Papers 11-28, Bank of Canada.
  40. Cavalcanti, T.V.V. & Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M., 2009. "Growth, Development and Natural Resources: New Evidence Using a Heterogeneous Panel Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0946, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  41. Roger D. Huang & Ronald W. Masulis & Hans R. Stoll, 1996. "Energy shocks and financial markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, 02.
  42. Alexander Chudik & Vanessa Smith, 2013. "The GVAR approach and the dominance of the U.S. economy," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 136, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  43. M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2007. "What if the UK or Sweden had joined the euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a Global VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 55-87.
  44. Hausman, Jerry A & Newey, Whitney K, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of Exact Consumers Surplus and Deadweight Loss," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(6), pages 1445-76, November.
  45. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)

or (Hassan Zaidi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.