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Deciding to Enter a Monetary Union; TheRole of Trade and Financial Linkages

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  • Ruy Lama
  • Pau Rabanal

Abstract

This paper evaluates the role of trade and financial linkages in the decision to enter a monetary union. We estimate a two-country DSGE model for the U.K. economy and the euro area, and use the model to compute the welfare trade-offs from joining the euro. We evaluate two alternative scenarios. In the first one, we consider a reduction of trade costs that occurs after the adoption of a common currency. In the second, we introduce interest rate spread shocks of the same magnitude as the ones observed during the recent debt crisis in Europe. The reduction of trade costs generates a net welfare gain of 0.9 percent of life-time consumption, while the increased interest rate spread volatility generates a net welfare cost of 2.9 percentage points. The welfare calculation suggests two ways to preserve the welfare gains in a monetary union: ensuring fiscal and financial stability that reduces macroeconomic country risk, and increasing wage flexibility such that the economy adjusts to external shocks faster.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruy Lama & Pau Rabanal, 2012. "Deciding to Enter a Monetary Union; TheRole of Trade and Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 12/240, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/240
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucjan T Orlowski & Anna Tsibulina, 2014. "Integration of Central and Eastern European and the Euro-Area Financial Markets: Repercussions from the Global Financial Crisis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(3), pages 376-395, September.
    2. Petroulakis, Filippos, 2017. "Internal devaluation in currency unions: the role of trade costs and taxes," Working Paper Series 2049, European Central Bank.
    3. Lino Sau, 2015. "Debt deflation worries: a restatement," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 279-294, July.
    4. Kebalo, Léleng, 2017. "Incidence de l'ouverture économique et de la libéralisation financière des pays de la Communauté Économique des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest sur leurs activités économiques
      [Impact of economic ope
      ," MPRA Paper 79442, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. D’Aguanno, Lucio, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Welfare in a Currency Union," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1082, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    6. Lawson, Cornelia & Soós,Sándor, 2014. "A Thematic Mobility Measure for Econometric Analysis," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201408, University of Turin.
    7. Guilherme Bandeira, 2018. "Fiscal transfers in a monetary union with sovereign risk," Working Papers 1807, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    8. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Makarski, Krzysztof & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2014. "Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-79.
    9. repec:lrk:eeaart:35_2_10 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Benjamin Schwanebeck, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Financially Heterogeneous Monetary Union," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201741, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro Area; European Economic and Monetary Union; Economic models; Economic integration; Monetary unions; Trade integration; United Kingdom; Trade Costs; DSGE Model; Monetary Union; intermediate goods; elasticity of substitution; nominal interest rate; Monetary Union.; Monetary Policy (Targets; Instruments; and Effects); Open Economy Macroeconomics; International Policy Coordination and Transmission; International Business Cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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