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Determinants of Growth Spells; Is Africa Different?


  • Charalambos G Tsangarides


Do growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine determinants of growth spells in Africa and the rest of the world using Bayesian Mode Averaging techniques for proportional hazards models. We define growth spells as periods of sustained growth episodes between growth accelerations and decelerations and then relate the probability that a growth spell ends to various determinants including exogenous shocks, physical and human capital, macroeconomic policy, and sociopolitical factors. Our analysis suggests that determinants of growth spells in Africa are different from those in the rest of the world. The majority of the identified robust determinants have a distinct impact in only one of the two samples: initial income, terms of trade, exchange rate undervaluation and inflation, influence spells only in the world sample, while openness and droughts seem to only affect Africa. In addition, a few common determinants - proxies for human and physical capital and changes in the world interest rate - have very different marginal effects in the two samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2012. "Determinants of Growth Spells; Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 12/227, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/227

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ahlerup, Pelle & Baskaran, Thushyanthan & Bigsten, Arne, 2016. "Government Impartiality and Sustained Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 54-69.
    2. J. Acalin & B. Cabrillac & G. Dufrénot & L. Jacolin & S. Diop, 2015. "Financial integration and growth correlation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working papers 561, Banque de France.
    3. Grekou, Carl, 2015. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 142-154.
    4. EZZAHIDI, Elhadj & El Alaoui, Aicha, 2015. "Determinants of the recent growth surge in Africa: what changed since mid-1990s?," MPRA Paper 67792, University Library of Munich, Germany.


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