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Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks; How and Why Do Countries Differ?

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  • R. G Gelos
  • Yulia Ustyugova

Abstract

This paper relates the inflationary impact of commodity price shocks across countries to a broad range of structural characteristics and policy frameworks over the period 2001-2010, using several approaches. The analysis suggests that economies with higher food shares in CPI baskets, fuel intensities, and pre-existing inflation levels were more prone to experience sustained inflationary effects from commodity price shocks. Countries with more independent central banks and higher governance scores seem to have contained the impact of these shocks better. The effect of the presence of inflation targeting regimes, however, appears very modest and not evident during the 2008 food price shock.The evidence suggests that trade openness, financial development, dollarization, and labor market flexibility do not significantly influence the way in which domestic inflation responds to international commodity price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • R. G Gelos & Yulia Ustyugova, 2012. "Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks; How and Why Do Countries Differ?," IMF Working Papers 12/225, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Do precious metal prices help in forecasting South African inflation?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 63-72.
    2. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    3. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.
    4. Lloyd, Tim & McCorriston, Steve & Zvogu, Evious, 2015. "Common Shocks, Uncommon Effects: Food Price Inflation across the EU," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212055, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. María Franco Chuaire & Carlos Scartascini & Mariano Tommasi, 2017. "State capacity and the quality of policies. Revisiting the relationship between openness and government size," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 133-156, July.
    6. Wang, Qiang & Li, Rongrong, 2016. "Impact of cheaper oil on economic system and climate change: A SWOT analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 925-931.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity prices; Cross country analysis; External shocks; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Governance; Monetary policy; pass-through; Phillips curve; central bank; inflationary impact; Open Economy Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Central Banking; and the Supply of Money and Credit: General; Macroeconomic Policy; Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance; and General Outlook: General;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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