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The Pre-Crisis Capital Flow Surge to Emerging Europe; Did Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Make a Difference?

Author

Listed:
  • Ruben V Atoyan
  • Dustin Smith
  • Albert Jaeger

Abstract

A push-pull-brake model of capital flows is used to study the effects of fiscal policy changes on private capital flows to emerging Europe during 2000-07. In the model, countercyclical fiscal policy has two opposing effects on capital inflows: (i) a conventional absorptionreducing effect, as a tighter fiscal stance acts as a brake on capital flows; and (ii) an unconventional absorption-boosting effect, as a tighter fiscal stance increases investor confidence in the country. The empirical results suggest that push factors (low returns in flow-originating countries), rather than pull factors (high returns in flow-destination countries), drove most of the private capital flows to emerging Europe. And active countercyclical fiscal policy once the fiscal stance is adjusted for the automatic effects on the fiscal position of both internal and external imbalances acted as a brake on capital inflows. However, the empirical results also suggest that, even abstracting from political feasibility and fiscal policy lag considerations, countercyclical fiscal policy alone is unlikely to be an effective policy tool to put an effective brake on sudden capital flow surges.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruben V Atoyan & Dustin Smith & Albert Jaeger, 2012. "The Pre-Crisis Capital Flow Surge to Emerging Europe; Did Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Make a Difference?," IMF Working Papers 12/222, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2003. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 353-370.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    3. Jesmin Rahman, 2010. "Absorption Boom and Fiscal Stance; What Lies Ahead in Eastern Europe?," IMF Working Papers 10/97, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mahmood Pradhan & Ravi Balakrishnan & Reza Baqir & Geoffrey M Heenan & Sylwia Nowak & Ceyda Oner & Sanjaya P Panth, 2011. "Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/10, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecosys:v:41:y:2017:i:3:p:367-378 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Paulo José Regis, 2015. "The Sustainability of European External Debt: What have We Learned?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 445-468, August.

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