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The Pre-Crisis Capital Flow Surge to Emerging Europe; Did Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Make a Difference?

  • Ruben Atoyan
  • Dustin Smith
  • Albert Jaeger
Registered author(s):

    A push-pull-brake model of capital flows is used to study the effects of fiscal policy changes on private capital flows to emerging Europe during 2000-07. In the model, countercyclical fiscal policy has two opposing effects on capital inflows: (i) a conventional absorptionreducing effect, as a tighter fiscal stance acts as a brake on capital flows; and (ii) an unconventional absorption-boosting effect, as a tighter fiscal stance increases investor confidence in the country. The empirical results suggest that push factors (low returns in flow-originating countries), rather than pull factors (high returns in flow-destination countries), drove most of the private capital flows to emerging Europe. And active countercyclical fiscal policy once the fiscal stance is adjusted for the automatic effects on the fiscal position of both internal and external imbalances acted as a brake on capital inflows. However, the empirical results also suggest that, even abstracting from political feasibility and fiscal policy lag considerations, countercyclical fiscal policy alone is unlikely to be an effective policy tool to put an effective brake on sudden capital flow surges.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/222.

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    Length: 34
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/222
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    1. Jesmin Rahman, 2010. "Absorption Boom and Fiscal Stance; What Lies Ahead in Eastern Europe?," IMF Working Papers 10/97, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mahmood Pradhan & Ravi Balakrishnan & Reza Baqir & Geoffrey Heenan & Sylwia Nowak & Ceyda Oner & Sanjaya Panth, 2011. "Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/10, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, 2001. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Bank of England working papers 148, Bank of England.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
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