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Global Housing Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Deniz O Igan
  • Prakash Loungani

Abstract

Housing cycles and their impact on the financial system and the macroeconomy have become the center of attention following the global financial crisis. This paper documents the characteristics of housing cycles in a large set of countries, and examines the determinants of house price movements. Empirical analysis shows that house price dynamics are mostly driven by income and demographics but fluctuations in these fundamentals and credit conditions can create deviations from the implied equilibrium path. We conclude with a discussion of the macroeconomic implications of house price corrections.

Suggested Citation

  • Deniz O Igan & Prakash Loungani, 2012. "Global Housing Cycles," IMF Working Papers 12/217, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/217
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warnock, Veronica Cacdac & Warnock, Francis E., 2008. "Markets and housing finance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 239-251, September.
    2. Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States," IMF Working Papers 08/187, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mick Silver, 2012. "Why House Price Indexes Differ; Measurement and Analysis," IMF Working Papers 12/125, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Poterba, James M, 1992. "Taxation and Housing: Old Questions, New Answers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 237-242, May.
    5. Marek Jarocinski & Frank Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 339-366.
    6. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mick Silver, 2011. "House Price Indices: Does Measurement Matter?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 12(3), pages 69-86, July.
    8. Dennis R. Capozza & Charlotte Mack & Patric H. Hendershott & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "The Determinants of House Price Dynamics," ERES eres2002_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael, Bryane & Zhao, Simon, 2016. "Bubble Economics How Big a Shock to China’s Real Estate Sector Will Throw the Country into Recession, and Why Does It Matter?," EconStor Preprints 141314, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    2. Crowe, Christopher & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Rabanal, Pau, 2013. "How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 300-319.
    3. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 223(1), pages 39-48, February.
    4. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    5. Krzysztof Olszewski & Robert Leszczyński, 2013. "Panel analysis of home prices in the primary and secondary market in 17 largest cities in Poland," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    6. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:88-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Muellbauer, John & Geiger, Felix & Rupprecht, Manuel, 2016. "The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer," Working Paper Series 1904, European Central Bank.
    8. Basten, Christoph & Koch, Catherine, 2015. "The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-22.
    9. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto & Anjali Chouhan, 2017. "Modeling the business and financial cycle in a multivariate structural time series model," DNB Working Papers 573, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 209-220.
    11. Shi, Song & Jou, Jyh-Bang & Tripe, David, 2014. "Can interest rates really control house prices? Effectiveness and implications for macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-28.

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