IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/12-216.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks; Application to Stress Testing

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Schmieder
  • Tidiane Kinda
  • Nassim N. Taleb
  • Elena Loukoianova
  • Elie Canetti

Abstract

This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be misleading in the presence of model error and the uncertainty attending parameters and their estimation. The heuristic can be seen as a second order stress test to detect nonlinearities in the tails that can lead to fragility, i.e., provide additional information on the robustness of stress tests. It also shows how the measure can be used to assess the robustness of public debt forecasts, an important issue in many countries. The heuristic measure outlined here can be used in a variety of situations to ascertain an ordinal ranking of fragility to tail risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Schmieder & Tidiane Kinda & Nassim N. Taleb & Elena Loukoianova & Elie Canetti, 2012. "A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks; Application to Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 12/216, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/216
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=26222
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Schmieder & Maher Hasan & Claus Puhr, 2011. "Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 11/83, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Bayoumi, Tamim & Vitek, Francis, 2011. "Spillovers from the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis: A Macroeconometric Model Based Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert M Heath, 2013. "Why are the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative and the SDDS Plus Relevant for Financial Stability Analysis?," IMF Working Papers 13/6, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Robert Heath, 2013. "Why Are The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative And The Sdds Plus Relevant For Financial Stability Analysis?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(03), pages 1-24.
    3. J. D. Opdyke, 2014. "Estimating Operational Risk Capital with Greater Accuracy, Precision, and Robustness," Papers 1406.0389, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2014.
    4. Paolo Giordani & Simon H. Kwan, 2019. "Tracking Financial Fragility," Working Paper Series 2019-6, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, revised 28 Feb 2019.
    5. Eugenio M Cerutti & Christian Schmieder, 2012. "The Need for "Un-consolidating" Consolidated Banks' Stress Tests," IMF Working Papers 12/288, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Atif Ansar & Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2016. "Big is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale," Papers 1603.01416, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    7. Callegari, C. & Szklo, A. & Schaeffer, R., 2018. "Cost overruns and delays in energy megaprojects: How big is big enough?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 211-220.
    8. Daniel C Hardy & Christian Schmieder, 2013. "Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 13/232, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Andrzej Slawinski, 2015. "Shielding money creation from severe banking crises: How useful are proposals offered by the alternative reform plans?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 46(3), pages 191-206.
    10. Heiko Hesse & Ferhan Salman & Christian Schmieder, 2014. "How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?," IMF Working Papers 14/103, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Thomas Santoli & Christoph Siebenbrunner, 2018. "An ontological investigation of unimaginable events," Papers 1803.02570, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Economic models; Forecasting; Public debt; Stress testing; Stability; debt dynamics; sovereign debt; net debt; banking;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Hassan Zaidi to update the entry or send us the correct email address. General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.