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Exchange Rate Fluctuations and International Portfolio Rebalancing in Thailand

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  • Jacob Gyntelberg
  • Subhanij Tientip
  • Mico Loretan

Abstract

We present empirical evidence that the Thai baht’s value is driven in part by investors’ cross-border equity portfolio rebalancing decisions. Our results are based on comprehensive datasets of FX and stock market transactions undertaken by nonresident investors in Thailand in 2005 and 2006. Higher returns in the stock market relative to a reference stock market are associated with net sales of equities by these investors and a depreciation of the Thai baht. Net purchases of Thai equities lead to an appreciation of the Thai baht. Foreign investors do not appear to hedge the foreign exchange risk related to their stock market positions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Gyntelberg & Subhanij Tientip & Mico Loretan, 2012. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and International Portfolio Rebalancing in Thailand," IMF Working Papers 12/214, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 126-133, May.
    2. Abhakorn, Pongrapeeporn & Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch, 2012. "A reexamination of capital controls’ effectiveness: Recent experience of Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 26-38.
    3. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. " International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-1880, December.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    5. Ferreira Filipe, Sara, 2012. "Equity order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 359-381.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Exchange markets; Exchange rate appreciation; Capital flows; Investment; Thailand; Stock markets; Foreign exchange market; equity market; portfolio rebalancing; stock market; exchange rate; foreign exchange; financial institutions;

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