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Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads; Estimation and Back-testing


  • Fabio Comelli


We estimate sovereign bond spreads of 28 emerging economies over the period January 1998-December 2011 and test the ability of the model in generating accurate in-sample predictions for emerging economies bond spreads. The impact and significance of country-specific and global explanatory variables on bond spreads varies across regions, as well as economic periods. During crisis times, good macroeconomic fundamentals are helpful in containing bond spreads, but less than in non-crisis times, possibly reflecting the impact of extra-economic forces on bond spreads when a financial crisis occurs. For some emerging economies, in-sample predictions of the monthly changes in bond spreads obtained with rolling regression routines are significantly more accurate than forecasts obtained with a random walk. Rolling regression-based bond spread predictions appear to convey more information than those obtained with a linear prediction method. By contrast, bond spreads forecasts obtained with a linear prediction method are less accurate than those obtained with random guessing.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Comelli, 2012. "Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads; Estimation and Back-testing," IMF Working Papers 12/212, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/212

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Camila Henao Arbelaez & Nelson Sobrinho, 2017. "Government Financial Assets and Debt Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 17/173, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Christian H Ebeke & Yinqiu Lu, 2014. "Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Yields and Foreign Holdings in the Post-Lehman Period - a Fortune or Misfortune?," IMF Working Papers 14/29, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ercio Muñoz S., 2013. "Precio de Materias Primas y Spread Soberano en Economías Emergentes ¿Importa la Concentración de las Exportaciones?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 100-121, April.
    4. Erdal Özmen & Özge Doğanay Yaşar, 2015. "Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spreads, Credit Ratings and Global Financial Crisis," ERC Working Papers 1510, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2015.
    5. Luis Brandão Brandao Marques & R. G Gelos & Natalia Melgar, 2013. "Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks," IMF Working Papers 13/156, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi & Bert Scholtens, 2016. "Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance and sovereign bond spreads: an empirical analysis of OECD countries," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01401718, HAL.
    7. Andrea Presbitero & Dhaneshwar Ghura & Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Lamin Njie, 2015. "International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies; Drivers of Issuance and Spreads," IMF Working Papers 15/275, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Figuet, Jean-Marc & Humblot, Thomas & Lahet, Delphine, 2015. "Cross-border banking claims on emerging countries: The Basel III Banking Reforms in a push and pull framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 294-310.
    9. repec:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:163-186 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Alexandru MINEA & Jean-Louis COMBES & Weneyam Hippolyte BALIMA, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," Working Papers 201504, CERDI.
    11. Csontó, Balázs, 2014. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads and shifts in global market sentiment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 58-74.
    12. Gennaioli, Nicola & Martin, Alberto & Rossi, Stefano, 2014. "Banks, Government Bonds, and Default: What do the Data Say?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10044, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Patricia Gómez-González, 2015. "Financial innovation in sovereign borrowing and public provision of liquidity," Working Papers 1511, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    14. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 126-145.
    15. Kocsis, Zalan & Monostori, Zoltan, 2016. "The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-168.
    16. Ebeke, Christian & Lu, Yinqiu, 2015. "Emerging market local currency bond yields and foreign holdings – A fortune or misfortune?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 203-219.
    17. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2016. "Inflation targeting credibility and sovereign risk: evidence from Colombia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 984-990, September.
    18. Özmen, Erdal & Doğanay Yaşar, Özge, 2016. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads, credit ratings and global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 93-101.
    19. Independent Evaluation Group, 2016. "Findings from Evaluations of Policy-Based Guarantees," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 25284, June.
    20. Riedel, Christoph & Thuraisamy, Kannan S. & Wagner, Niklas, 2013. "Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 209-223.
    21. repec:lje:journl:v:22:y:2017:i:sp:p:25-51 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Economic models; Emerging markets; Bonds; Sovereign debt; Emerging economies; sovereign bond yield spreads; in-sample forecasts; bond; bond spreads; sovereign bond; bond spread; sovereign bonds;

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