Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads; Estimation and Back-testing
We estimate sovereign bond spreads of 28 emerging economies over the period January 1998-December 2011 and test the ability of the model in generating accurate in-sample predictions for emerging economies bond spreads. The impact and significance of country-specific and global explanatory variables on bond spreads varies across regions, as well as economic periods. During crisis times, good macroeconomic fundamentals are helpful in containing bond spreads, but less than in non-crisis times, possibly reflecting the impact of extra-economic forces on bond spreads when a financial crisis occurs. For some emerging economies, in-sample predictions of the monthly changes in bond spreads obtained with rolling regression routines are significantly more accurate than forecasts obtained with a random walk. Rolling regression-based bond spread predictions appear to convey more information than those obtained with a linear prediction method. By contrast, bond spreads forecasts obtained with a linear prediction method are less accurate than those obtained with random guessing.
|Date of creation:||01 Aug 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gabriela Dobrescu & Iva Petrova & Nazim Belhocine & Emanuele Baldacci, 2011. "Assessing Fiscal Stress," IMF Working Papers 11/100, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, January.
- Susan M Schadler & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2007. "Do Economists’ and Financial Markets’ Perspectives on the New Members of the EU differ?," IMF Working Papers 07/65, International Monetary Fund.
- Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
- Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
- Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to evaluate an Early Warning System ?," Working Papers halshs-00450050, HAL.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
- Luca A Ricci & Marcos d Chamon & Yuanyan S Zhang, 2011. "Country Insurance Using Financial Instruments," IMF Working Papers 11/169, International Monetary Fund.
- Mauro, Paolo & Sussman, Nathan & Yafeh, Yishay, 2007. "Emerging Markets and Financial Globalization: Sovereign Bond Spreads in 1870-1913 and Today," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199226139.