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How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands

  • Nkunde Mwase

This paper investigates the drivers of reserves in emerging markets (EMs) and small island (SIs) and develops an operational metric for estimating reserves in SIs taking into account their unique characteristics. It uses quantile regression techniques to allow the estimated factors driving reserves holdings to vary along the reserves’ holding distribution and tests for equality among the slope coefficients of the various quantile regressions and the overall models. F-tests comparing the inter-quantile differences could not reject the that the models for the different quantiles of SIs reserve distribution were similar but this was rejected for EMs distribution suggesting that models explaining drivers of reserve holdings should take into account the country’s reserve holdings. Empirical analysis suggests that the metric performs better than existing metrics in reducing crisis probabilities in SIs.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/205.

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Length: 44
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/205
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Shambaugh, Jay C & Taylor, Alan M., 2008. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," CEPR Discussion Papers 6693, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Yeonho & Rhee, Yeongseop, 2004. "International reserves management and capital mobility in a volatile world: Policy considerations and a case study of Korea," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt1867f7ng, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  7. Woon Gyu Choi & Sunil Sharma & Maria Str�mqvist, 2009. "Net Capital Flows, Financial Integration, and International Reserve Holdings: The Recent Experience of Emerging Markets and Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 516-540, August.
  8. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan David Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2012. "Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980's," IMF Working Papers 12/34, International Monetary Fund.
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