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How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands

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  • Nkunde Mwase

Abstract

This paper investigates the drivers of reserves in emerging markets (EMs) and small island (SIs) and develops an operational metric for estimating reserves in SIs taking into account their unique characteristics. It uses quantile regression techniques to allow the estimated factors driving reserves holdings to vary along the reserves’ holding distribution and tests for equality among the slope coefficients of the various quantile regressions and the overall models. F-tests comparing the inter-quantile differences could not reject the that the models for the different quantiles of SIs reserve distribution were similar but this was rejected for EMs distribution suggesting that models explaining drivers of reserve holdings should take into account the country’s reserve holdings. Empirical analysis suggests that the metric performs better than existing metrics in reducing crisis probabilities in SIs.

Suggested Citation

  • Nkunde Mwase, 2012. "How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands," IMF Working Papers 12/205, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/205
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=26191
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    4. Woon Gyu Choi & Sunil Sharma & Maria Strömqvist, 2009. "Net Capital Flows, Financial Integration, and International Reserve Holdings: The Recent Experience of Emerging Markets and Advanced Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 516-540, August.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Yeonho & Rhee, Youngseop, 2007. "International reserves management and capital mobility in a volatile world: Policy considerations and a case study of Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15, March.
    7. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2017. "Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980s," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 308-364, June.
    8. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. GBANDI, Tchapo, 2016. "Ratios d’adéquation et fonction de demande des réserves de change dans les pays de l’UEMOA
      [Title: Foreign reserve adequacy ratios and reserve demand function in WAEMU countries]
      ," MPRA Paper 82145, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2016.
    2. Csávás Csaba & Csom-Bíró Gabriella, 2017. "Indicators Used for the Assessment of the Reserve Adequacy of Emerging and Developing Countries – International Trends in the Mirror of Theories," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(1), pages 5-45.

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