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Bond Yields in Emerging Economies; It Matters What State You Are In

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  • Laura Jaramillo
  • Anke Weber

Abstract

While many studies have looked into the determinants of yields on externally issued sovereign bonds of emerging economies, analysis of domestically issued bonds has hitherto been limited, despite their growing relevance. This paper finds that the extent to which fiscal variables affect domestic bond yields in emerging economies depends on the level of global risk aversion. During tranquil times in global markets, fiscal variables do not seem to be a significant determinant of domestic bond yields in emerging economies. However, when market participants are on edge, they pay greater attention to country-specific fiscal fundamentals, revealing greater alertness about default risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Jaramillo & Anke Weber, 2012. "Bond Yields in Emerging Economies; It Matters What State You Are In," IMF Working Papers 12/198, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/198
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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Jaramillo & Yuanyan S Zhang, 2013. "Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 13/254, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Miyajima, Ken & Mohanty, M.S. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Emerging market local currency bonds: Diversification and stability," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 126-139.
    3. Sola, Sergio & Palomba, Geremia, 2016. "Sub-nationals' risk premia in fiscal federations: Fiscal performance and institutional design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 165-187.
    4. Essers, Dennis & Cassimon, Danny, 2012. "Washing away original sin: vulnerability to crisis and the role of local currency bonds in Sub-Saharan Africa," IOB Working Papers 2012.12, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina & Volz, Ulrich, 2017. "Bond Yield Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia," GLO Discussion Paper Series 41, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Asian Development Bank Institute, 2017. "Asia Bond Monitor - June 2016," Working Papers id:11793, eSocialSciences.
    7. Brana, Sophie & Prat, Stéphanie, 2016. "The effects of global excess liquidity on emerging stock market returns: Evidence from a panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 26-34.
    8. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    9. repec:vul:omefvu:v:8:y:2017:i:1:id:217 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:rnp:ecopol:ep1708 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:onb:oenbfi:y:2018:i:q1-18:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Konopczak, Michal, 2015. "Government debt holdings of non-residents – an analysis of the impact on selected emerging economies’ sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 68597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Nazim Belhocine & Salvatore Dell'Erba, 2013. "The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads," IMF Working Papers 13/93, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Chiarella, Carl & ter Ellen, Saskia & He, Xue-Zhong & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "Fear or fundamentals? Heterogeneous beliefs in the European sovereign CDS market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 19-34.
    15. repec:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:163-186 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Julio Escolano & Christina Kolerus & Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana, 2014. "Global Monetary Tightening; Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises," IMF Working Papers 14/215, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Batten, Jonathan A. & Jacoby, Gady & Liao, Rose C., 2014. "Corporate yield spreads and real interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-100.
    18. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Luca A Ricci, 2016. "Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads?," IMF Working Papers 16/246, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Laura Jaramillo & Anke Weber, 2013. "Global Spillovers into Domestic Bond Markets in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 13/264, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Stracca, Livio, 2013. "The global effects of the euro debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1573, European Central Bank.
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    22. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina & Pedro del Río, 2012. "Boom-bust cycles, imbalances and discipline in Europe," Working Papers 1220, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    23. Kocsis, Zalan & Monostori, Zoltan, 2016. "The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-168.
    24. Ebeke, Christian & Lu, Yinqiu, 2015. "Emerging market local currency bond yields and foreign holdings – A fortune or misfortune?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 203-219.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bond markets; Bonds; Economic models; Fiscal policy; International financial markets; Public debt; Emerging Market Economies; Fiscal Deficit; bond; bond yields; domestic bond; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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