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A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Nombulelo Gumata
  • Eliphas Ndou
  • Nir Klein

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman filter), which identify an unobservable common factor from a group of external and domestic financial indicators. The alternative estimated FCIs, which share a similar trajectory over time, seem to have a powerful predictive information for the near-term GDP growth (up to four quarters), and they outperform the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) leading indicator as well as individual financial variables. Their recent dynamics suggest that following a strong recovery in late-2009 and 2010, reflecting in part domestic factors such as systematic reductions in the policy rate, the rebound in real economic activity, and a benign inflationary environment, the financial conditions have deteriorated in recent months, though not as sharply as in end-2008. Given their relatively high predictive power regarding GDP growth, a further deterioration may imply that economic activity is likely to slow in the period ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Nombulelo Gumata & Eliphas Ndou & Nir Klein, 2012. "A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 12/196, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/196
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carolina Osorio & Filiz D Unsal & Runchana Pongsaparn, 2011. "A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia," IMF Working Papers 11/170, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2010. "Gathering insights on the forest from the trees: a new metric for financial conditions," Working Paper Series WP-2010-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:tpr:asiaec:v:16:y:2017:i:2:p:83-117 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Umit Bulut, 2016. "Do Financial Conditions have a Predictive Power on Inflation in Turkey?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 621-628.
    3. repec:eee:inteco:v:150:y:2017:i:c:p:36-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2015. "Turkiye icin Finansal Kosullar Endeksi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(3), pages 41-73.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Jun Ma & Marian Risse & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Common Business Cycles and Volatilities in US States and MSAs: The Role of Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers 201766, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. repec:agr:journl:v:3(612):y:2017:i:3(612):p:147-172 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Alain Kabundi & Asi Mbelu, 2017. "Working Paper – WP/17/02- Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Papers 8008, South African Reserve Bank.

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