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Intertwined Sovereign and Bank Solvencies in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Crisis


  • Gustavo Adler


Large fiscal financing needs, both in advanced and emerging market economies, have often been met by borrowing heavily from domestic banks. As public debt approached sustainability limits in a number of countries, however, high bank exposure to sovereign risk created a fragile inter-dependence between fiscal and bank solvency. This paper presents a simple model of twin (sovereign and banking) crisis that stresses how this interdependence creates conditions conducive to a self-fulfilling crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Adler, 2012. "Intertwined Sovereign and Bank Solvencies in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Crisis," IMF Working Papers 12/178, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/178

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ueda, Kozo, 2012. "Banking globalization and international business cycles: Cross-border chained credit contracts and financial accelerators," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 1-16.
    2. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 707-740, December.
    3. Güneş Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2013. "Financial Exposure and the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 127-158, December.
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    5. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M. & Kramer, Charles, 1996. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: Another linear example," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 223-234, November.
    6. Steven Riess Weisbrod & Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1994. "Financial Market Fragilities in Latin America; From Banking Crisis Resolution to Current Policy Challenges," IMF Working Papers 94/117, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. "Financial intermediation and the international business cycle: The case of small countries with big banks," CDMA Working Paper Series 201108, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    8. Bennett W Sutton & Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults; The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Cristina Arellano & Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2012. "Chronic sovereign debt crises in the Eurozone, 2010-2012," Economic Policy Paper 12-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Kollmann, Robert & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 407-426, April.
    11. Carlos A. Rodríguez, 1992. "Financial Reforms in Latin America: The Cases of Argentina, Chile and Uruguay," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 84, Universidad del CEMA.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lino Sau, 2015. "Debt deflation worries: a restatement," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 279-294, July.
    2. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2015. "Contagion and banking crisis – International evidence for 2007–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 271-283.
    3. Serkan Arslanalp & Takahiro Tsuda, 2012. "Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 12/284, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Lawson, Cornelia & Soós,Sándor, 2014. "A Thematic Mobility Measure for Econometric Analysis," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201408, University of Turin.
    5. Nedelcu Monica Letitia, 2013. "The Liquidity of the Financial System and the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe – Is There a Solution?," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 238-243, May.


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