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Intertwined Sovereign and Bank Solvencies in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Crisis

  • Gustavo Adler

Large fiscal financing needs, both in advanced and emerging market economies, have often been met by borrowing heavily from domestic banks. As public debt approached sustainability limits in a number of countries, however, high bank exposure to sovereign risk created a fragile inter-dependence between fiscal and bank solvency. This paper presents a simple model of twin (sovereign and banking) crisis that stresses how this interdependence creates conditions conducive to a self-fulfilling crisis.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/178.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/178
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  1. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2013. "Financial exposure and the international transmission of financial shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2013-39, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Steven Riess Weisbrod & Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1994. "Financial Market Fragilities in Latin America; From Banking Crisis Resolution to Current Policy Challenges," IMF Working Papers 94/117, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Ueda, Kozo, 2012. "Banking globalization and international business cycles: Cross-border chained credit contracts and financial accelerators," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 1-16.
  4. Robert KOLLMANN, 2011. "Global Banking and International Business Cycles," 2011 Meeting Papers 20, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Timothy Kehoe & Juan Carlos Conesa, 2012. "Gambling for Redemption and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," 2012 Meeting Papers 614, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Bennett Sutton & Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults; The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Carlos A. Rodríguez, 1992. "Financial Reforms in Latin America: The Cases of Argentina, Chile and Uruguay," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 84, Universidad del CEMA.
  8. Cristina Arellano & Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2012. "Chronic sovereign debt crises in the Eurozone, 2010-2012," Economic Policy Paper 12-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Afonso S. Bevilaqua & Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 1999. "Banks, domestic debt intermediation and confidence crises: the recent Brazilian experience," Textos para discussão 407, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
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